Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s likely visit to India could signal a breakthrough in one of the most contentious issues between Dhaka and New Delhi — the future of convicted Sheikh Hasina — and potentially shape the course of bilateral relations in the coming years.
The visit is expected in the third week of this month following an invitation from New Delhi. If it goes ahead, the high-level engagement could provide both governments with an opportunity to establish political rapport, understand each other’s priorities and give fresh direction to a relationship strained since the fall of the Awami League government in 2024.
The visit could also have implications for Bangladesh’s domestic politics, where the future of Awami League remains unresolved.
Hasina, who fled to India after the student-led uprising in August 2024, expressed her desire to return to Bangladesh at an event on 5 August. Awami League sources have suggested that she could return between 5 and 8 December.
Sources familiar with the matter said India would be willing to facilitate her return if Dhaka can ensure adequate security.
BNP Presidium Member Gayeshwar Chandra Roy told TIMES of Bangladesh that his party would not prevent Hasina from returning.
“If the Awami League leader wants to come to the country, she will come. BNP has nothing to say here. There is no obstacle from BNP to her coming to the country. Rather, we want Sheikh Hasina to come to the country. However, the law will follow its own pace,” he said.
Delinking Hasina from bilateral ties
One of the potentially significant outcomes of Tarique’s India visit would be separating the Hasina issue from the broader Bangladesh-India relationship.
Hasina’s presence in India has remained a major irritant between the two countries. Dhaka has repeatedly objected to her political activities from Indian soil, including her virtual appearance at the 5 August event, where she made critical remarks about the Bangladesh government.
Dhaka had urged New Delhi not to allow her to participate, but India permitted her to join the event while publicly distancing itself from the programme.
If an understanding is reached over Hasina’s future and Dhaka is comfortable with arrangements for her return, the issue could gradually cease to dominate bilateral relations.
Sources said New Delhi is willing to facilitate her return, provided Bangladesh can ensure adequate security and that the process is handled in accordance with the law.
Such an understanding could remove one of the biggest political obstacles to rebuilding trust between the two neighbours.
From bottom-up to top-down
The proposed visit also marks a departure from the usual diplomatic approach to resolving bilateral disputes.
Normally, working-level mechanisms discuss contentious issues before they are elevated to political leaders. The two prime ministers then provide political direction based on recommendations from the relevant institutions.
However, no significant working-level meetings have taken place between the two countries over the past six months, according to diplomatic sources.
The emerging approach therefore appears to be the reverse: the two prime ministers could first establish broad political understandings and then direct their respective institutions to work out the details.
This top-down approach could allow both governments to break the current deadlock and accelerate discussions on long-pending issues.
Issues on the table
Several important bilateral issues are likely to require political attention, including water sharing, security cooperation, energy, trade and connectivity.
The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty is due to expire in December, making it important for renewal discussions to begin soon. The long-pending Teesta water-sharing issue and broader basin-wide water management are also likely to remain on the agenda.
Security cooperation remains another important pillar of bilateral relations. Both countries face security challenges linked to radicalism and have an interest in ensuring that their territories are not used for activities against each other.
Energy cooperation is also becoming increasingly important for Dhaka. Bangladesh has already sought support from India and needs a stable, long-term arrangement to ensure reliable energy supplies.
Trade and connectivity have been longstanding areas of cooperation, with both sides seeking to expand economic opportunities and improve regional links.
A new beginning?
The proposed visit comes at a time when both Dhaka and New Delhi appear to recognise that prolonged tensions serve neither side.
Bangladesh needs a stable relationship with its larger neighbour for economic, energy, security and connectivity interests. India, meanwhile, needs assurances that Bangladesh will remain a stable and friendly neighbour and that its territory will not be used against India or any other country.
Against this backdrop, a Tarique-Modi meeting could become more than a routine bilateral engagement.
If the two sides can reach an understanding on the Hasina issue and establish a broader framework for cooperation, the visit could mark the beginning of a new phase in Bangladesh-India relations.
The outcome could also influence Bangladesh’s domestic political landscape, particularly the future role of Awami League and the process of addressing the political legacy of the 2024 uprising.
For both capitals, therefore, the proposed visit carries stakes well beyond diplomacy. It could determine whether Dhaka and Delhi remain trapped in their recent cycle of mistrust or move towards a more pragmatic and mutually beneficial relationship.
