The proposed budget for the 2026-27 fiscal year is not farmer-friendly, and food security could be at risk if agricultural production stagnates, warned agricultural economist Jahangir Alam.
Speaking to TIMES of Bangladesh on Thursday, the economist said that while the national budget has increased by 18.73 per cent compared to last year, the allocation for the agriculture sector has risen by only 1.20 per cent — an increase he described as “insignificant”.
The economist noted that with inflation hovering around 9 per cent, the real allocation for agriculture has actually decreased in relative terms.
“Agricultural subsidies have also decreased slightly compared to last fiscal year. This is not a positive message for the agriculture sector,” he said.
The economist pointed out that agricultural production growth was 2.42 per cent in 2024-25 and an estimated 2.72 percent in 2025-26. However, the average growth over the past 54 years has been over 3 percent.
“A kind of stagnation has been prevailing in agricultural production for the past two years. Compared to the long-term trend, growth has fallen far below,” he warned.
Alam said recent increases in the prices of fertiliser, fuel, gas, and electricity have raised farmers’ production costs.
“In this situation, if allocation and subsidies are reduced, there is a risk of production disruption,” he cautioned.
If production stagnates, the economist fears food imports will rise, import dependence will increase, food prices will spike, and food security will be at risk.
He also expressed doubt about achieving the government’s inflation target of 7.5 per cent for the next fiscal year.
“It is not possible to reduce inflation without increasing food production. If food inflation is not controlled, overall inflation will not decrease either,” he said.
Asked whether the budget can be called farmer-friendly, Alam replied, “Where agricultural subsidies have been reduced, where the increase in the agriculture budget is even lower than inflation, this budget cannot be called farmer-friendly.”
He acknowledged positive steps such as VAT exemptions on fertilisers and duty concessions on pesticide raw material imports but noted that importers typically enjoy the major benefits.
“Real farmers benefit most through increased subsidies or reduced prices of seeds and fertilisers,” he said.
The economist expressed concern over the long-term trend, noting that only 4.99 per cent of the total budget is now allocated to agriculture, down from 10.6 per cent in 2010.
He argued that at least 10 per cent — approximately Tk 94,000 crore — should be allocated to ensure food security.
“The importance of the agriculture sector has clearly decreased. Compared to the need, this year’s agriculture budget is extremely inadequate,” Jahangir Alam concluded.
