Bangladesh’s economic growth is expected to slow in the current fiscal year, while inflation could rise, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2026 forecast.
The IMF projects that Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could fall to 3.2 per cent in the 2026–27 fiscal year, while average inflation could climb to 10.9 per cent over the same period.
The projections could raise fresh concerns about the pace of economic recovery, people’s purchasing power and the investment climate.
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, Bangladesh’s economic growth for the 2025–26 fiscal year is estimated at 3.6 per cent. Average inflation for that fiscal year is projected to be 8.7 per cent.
The report was released on Tuesday morning during the ongoing joint annual meetings of the World Bank and the IMF.
According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the country’s overall inflation stood at 8.34 per cent in September.
Globally, the IMF projects economic growth of 3.1 per cent in 2026, rising to 3.4 per cent in 2027. Global average inflation is forecast to reach 4.7 per cent in 2026 before declining to 4.1 per cent in 2027.
The World Bank recently reported that Bangladesh’s economic growth is slowing, while private investment and employment have weakened. Gas and electricity shortages are disrupting industrial production, while non-performing loans and capital shortfalls in the banking sector are increasing. High inflation is also eroding people’s real incomes and purchasing power.
The global lender further noted that although the government spends substantial sums on social protection, electricity and energy, and fertiliser subsidies, a significant portion of the benefits does not reach poor people.
Many affluent households receive these benefits, while numerous families among the poorest remain outside the social protection system. These findings were presented in the World Bank’s October 2026 Bangladesh Development Update. The report titled “Make Subsidies and Social Protection Work Better for the Poor” was released on 6 October.
The report identifies restoring stability in the banking sector, ensuring energy security and good governance, and increasing tax revenue as key areas for reform. It also recommends gradually reducing broad-based subsidies while expanding targeted assistance for poor and vulnerable people.
