Fighting in Myanmar’s borderlands is reshaping security dynamics across the region, raising fresh concerns in Bangladesh as armed groups expand networks for weapons, drugs and recruitment across frontiers.
Clashes between the Myanmar military and ethnic armed groups have escalated as the country approaches a tightly managed general election. The conflict has spread beyond traditional battle lines in Shan and Rakhine states, destabilising a strategic frontier where India, Myanmar and Bangladesh meet.
Regional intelligence indicates a major weapons shipment is expected to enter Myanmar’s Chin State via Mizoram in India, before moving to the Arakan Army’s headquarters in Paletwa — or Laiza — and potentially onward to Buthidaung in northern Rakhine. The consignment may then move toward Bangladesh’s hill districts, according to the assessment, which added that the United States is aware of the developments, confirmed by the intelligence of a western superpower.
Arakan Army chief Major General Tun Myat Naing has acknowledged setbacks against Myanmar’s military but signalled a continued and more strategic fight. “As long as a military dictatorship exists, so will the revolution,” he said in a recent interview, conceding past miscalculations while outlining renewed resolve.
The group has intensified its involvement in the narcotics economy, which officials and regional sources say is being used to finance the conflict. Methamphetamine and heroin now move regularly through the Zokhawthar and Tamu-Moreh border crossings, transported by motorbike through remote mountain routes.
As Bangladesh prepares for its post–July Revolution election in coming February, the rising use of narcotics as a de facto currency for arms and ammunition has become a significant national security concern. This trend was underscored on 31 October, when Mizoram’s Excise and Narcotics Department seized 15.21 kg of methamphetamine in Champhai, arresting four men, including two from Myanmar. In recent weeks, Indian security forces also uncovered one of the largest arms caches in years near the Myanmar border.
In neighbouring Manipur, local sources allege that some security personnel facilitate smuggling in exchange for informal payments. “Checkpoints are managed like toll gates,” one source said, requesting anonymity due to safety concerns. “Everyone gets their share.”
Drugs trafficked through these corridors are routed towards Guwahati, Kolkata and Delhi, while some, officials say, are redirected into Bangladesh through the Chittagong Hill Tracts and Brahmanbaria. The same smuggling routes are believed to carry arms.
The flow of narcotics from Myanmar into Bangladesh is not the only concern. Earlier this year, video footage captured Arakan Army fighters in uniform attending the Arakha Water Festival in Thanchi, located in Bangladesh’s Bandarban district, an area known for the presence of the United People’s Democratic Front (UPDF). Militants were seen waving Arakan Army flags and mingling with villagers, with no apparent presence of Bangladeshi security forces.
Residents in border areas have separately reported Arakan Army fighters crossing into Naikhongchhari to trade drugs and recruit local fighters, often in UPDF-influenced zones. Analysts warn this points to emerging coordination between armed networks on both sides of the frontier.
The Arakan Army’s external alliances have also evolved. Previously heavily dependent on Chinese support — reportedly providing up to 95% of its funding in 2020 — the group now seems to be diversifying its backers via networks in India’s northeast. For Bangladesh, its growing strategic penetration in the Chittagong Hill Tracts is particularly alarming.
That move comes as Beijing strengthens ties with Myanmar’s military government and promotes a China-brokered ceasefire as evidence of stability.
For Bangladesh, already struggling to manage insurgent networks and criminal economies in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, the cross-border convergence of weapons, drugs and militants adds a new layer of risk — particularly as the country prepares for elections under the interim administration led by Muhammad Yunus.
