Hopes within Awami League that it would regain political space following the formation of a BNP-led government are rapidly fading, as mounting legal restrictions, arrests, and political pressure leave the party struggling to reorganise.
Although party activists initially believed a pathway back into mainstream politics would emerge after their temporary ban, that expectation has increasingly turned into disillusionment.
Analysts and party insiders point to a combination of government rigidity, strategic positioning by ruling BNP, and an openly hostile stance from Islamist and new political actors as key obstacles.
At the same time, Awami League faces a profound internal crisis. A growing segment of its grassroots and the wider public appear unwilling to accept the current leadership, particularly those accused of enforced disappearances, killings, and financial crimes.
Many within the party now argue that without a shift towards “clean image” leadership, regaining public trust will remain elusive.
Developments on the ground suggest that political space for the party is narrowing rather than expanding. While district and upazila offices briefly reopened after the change in government, many have since been shut again. Several activists have been arrested on charges of resuming activities despite the ban.
Recent incidents have reinforced these concerns. On 7 March, three individuals, including a former Chhatra League leader, were arrested in Shahbagh over the playing of a speech by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Days later, on 12 March, Dhaka University professor AKM Jamal Uddin was detained under anti-terrorism laws while attempting to organise a procession from Zero Point to Tungipara.
Even senior leaders who secured bail have reportedly faced “shown arrest” practices, where detainees are re-arrested in new cases upon release—further deepening fears within the party about the government’s intentions.
Parliamentary discussions during the first session of the new legislature have also kept Awami League under scrutiny, with both ruling and opposition members highlighting alleged abuses during its time in power.
Publicly, BNP leaders maintain that their position is guided strictly by legal considerations. Party Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir has reiterated that Awami League remains banned and therefore cannot operate politically. Similar statements from the home minister underscore the government’s official stance.
However, political observers suggest that BNP’s approach is more nuanced. While some party leaders appear open to Awami League’s eventual return, the party’s broader strategy seems to prioritise limiting its immediate re-entry into politics.
There are also indications that BNP may keep Awami League issue tactically relevant, particularly if tensions emerge with its current political partners. With local elections on the horizon, maintaining strategic flexibility appears to be a key consideration.
At the grassroots level, BNP leaders remain deeply resentful of what they describe as years of repression under Sheikh Hasina’s rule, making any quick political rehabilitation of Awami League unlikely.
BNP vice-chairman Asaduzzaman Ripon told TIMES of Bangladesh that the government will deal with the temporarily banned Awami League in accordance with the law. He emphasised that there is no question of the government allowing any political space for a prohibited party.
Mohiuddin Ahmad also told TIMES that both the ruling and opposition parties are expressing their positions on Awami League based on their respective political interests.
However, he argued that the more fundamental question is whether Awami League itself is ready to return to politics—a decision that must come from its own leadership.
He noted that much of the party’s top leadership is currently abroad after being convicted in cases related to enforced disappearances and killings, and that their continued hardline rhetoric from exile is not well received even among party members.
In his view, the party must first determine who will lead it in the country before it can seriously consider a political comeback.
Other political actors have taken a far more uncompromising stance. Leaders from Jamaat-e-Islami and National Citizen Party (NCP) have categorically rejected any possibility of Awami League returning to politics.
They argue that the party has been discredited both domestically and internationally over allegations of mass violence, warning that any attempt to reintegrate it into the political process would be met with strong resistance.
Jamaat-e-Islami’s assistant secretary general, Ahsanul Mahboob Zubair, said that leaders of Awami League accused of ‘genocide’ are being brought to justice and that, alongside these legal proceedings, the party remains temporarily banned.
He stressed that there is no scope for the party to resume political activities, warning that any attempt at a comeback would be met with firm political resistance backed by public support.
Similarly, NCP member secretary and Member of Parliament Akhter Hossen said Awami League has forfeited its right to engage in politics due to its alleged actions.
He claimed the party is now widely viewed, both domestically and internationally, as responsible for ‘genocide’, and cautioned that if BNP were to facilitate its return to politics, his party would respond strongly.
Within Awami League itself, the situation appears increasingly fragile. Many local leaders remain in hiding or entangled in legal cases, leaving organisational structures weakened.
Grassroots activists describe a lack of effective leadership capable of uniting the party. Some have called for a generational shift, arguing that figures associated with past controversies must step aside to allow for renewal.
There is even quiet discussion among some leaders about restructuring the party without Sheikh Hasina at the helm, or at least temporarily distancing her from active leadership. Others have suggested issuing a public apology over past actions as part of a broader strategy to regain legitimacy.
However, senior leaders have firmly rejected these ideas, insisting that Sheikh Hasina remains central to the party’s identity and future.
Since the fall of the government on 5 August last year, many senior Awami League figures have left the country and are now operating from abroad, maintaining contact with supporters primarily through social media.
Joint general secretary AFM Bahauddin Nasim told TIMES on his mobile that if the current government upholds democratic principles, Awami League should be allowed to return to politics, describing it as the party’s democratic right.
He dismissed suggestions of leadership change, reaffirming Sheikh Hasina’s continued leadership while declining to comment on whether the party would apologise over allegations of past abuses.
Taken together, Awami League’s political future now hinges on multiple interconnected factors: legal constraints, internal reform, grassroots unity, and the evolving strategies of rival political forces.
For now, the reality is stark. Between restrictions, leadership challenges, and an increasingly hostile political environment, the party’s way back to relevance appears long—and deeply uncertain.
