The FY2026–27 budget is set to create a clear split across listed equities, with gains concentrated in telecom and IT, pharmaceuticals, banks, RMG and textiles, power and fuel, electronics and green mobility, and FMCG, while tobacco and steel emerge as the key laggards, according to BRAC EPL Stock Brokerage.
In a post-budget analysis, the brokerage said the fiscal framework carries “the most direct capital market reform agenda in recent budgets” and signals a shift toward “an investment-led, formalised and productivity-oriented economy”.
The sectoral impact is driven by tax adjustments, higher public spending, export facilitation measures and capital market reforms designed to deepen long-term financing channels and improve market efficiency.
A key structural change is the proposed conversion of tax deducted at source from a final settlement into an advance tax system, allowing deductions to be adjusted and refunded. This is expected to ease liquidity pressure across firms.
The budget also proposes a gradual shift from T+2 to T+0 settlement, alongside digitised initial public offering processing through an integrated platform linking issuers, intermediaries and regulators.
Foreign investors will be able to repatriate or reinvest proceeds through non-resident investor taka accounts within one working day.
BRAC EPL said these capital market measures are likely to be neutral to mildly positive in the near term, with stronger benefits over time through higher issuance activity and improved trading efficiency.
Telecom and IT emerge among the clearest immediate beneficiaries. The budget withdraws the Tk300 SIM tax, reduces withholding tax on mobile network services to 10 per cent from 12 per cent, and removes the 20 per cent withholding tax on Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission revenue sharing and licence fees.
The brokerage said the changes are directly positive for cash flows of Grameenphone and Robi. Aamra Networks, ADN Telecom and BDCOM Online may also benefit from connectivity expansion, digitalisation and start-up funding support.
Pharmaceuticals gain from higher public healthcare spending, with health allocation rising to Tk69,400 crore from Tk35,500 crore in FY26, alongside tax relief on selected medical products and healthcare imports.
BRAC EPL identified Square Pharmaceuticals, Beximco Pharmaceuticals, Renata, Beacon Pharmaceuticals and JMI Syringes and Medical Devices as potential beneficiaries of stronger public procurement and expanded healthcare capacity.
Banks are supported through liquidity and stimulus measures, including a Tk60,000 crore package via Bangladesh Bank and an increase in the deposit excise duty-free threshold to Tk4 lakh from Tk3 lakh.
Brac Bank, City Bank, Eastern Bank, Premier Bank and Pubali Bank are positioned to benefit from stronger credit demand, SME financing and refinancing flows.
RMG and textiles are set to benefit from export facilitation reforms, including expanded bonded warehouse access, removal of inventory constraints, shorter utilisation approval timelines and wider duty-free raw material access.
Square Textiles, Envoy Textiles, Paramount Textile, Matin Spinning and Apex Footwear are expected to gain from lower administrative costs and improved export efficiency.
Power and fuel companies see margin support from tax adjustments, with withholding tax on electricity purchases reduced to 3 per cent from 4 per cent and tax on refinery fuel oil supply lowered to 1 per cent from 1.5 per cent.
Summit Power, United Power Generation and Distribution Company, Khulna Power Company, Baraka Power, Energypac Power Generation, Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company, MJL Bangladesh, Padma Oil, Jamuna Oil, Meghna Petroleum and Shahjibazar Power are among likely beneficiaries.
FMCG firms benefit from lower supply-chain tax friction, as withholding tax on 60 essential commodities is reduced to 0.5 per cent alongside lower duties on selected raw materials.
Olympic Industries, AMCL Pran, ACI and Bashundhara Paper are expected to see improved working capital conditions and steadier consumption flows.
Electronics and green mobility-linked companies gain from continued policy support, including extended value-added tax (VAT) exemptions until 2030 for locally manufactured mobile phones, computers and other technology products, alongside incentives for electric vehicles and battery inputs.
Walton Hi-Tech Industries, Singer Bangladesh, Runner Automobiles, IFAD Autos and Bangladesh Lamps are positioned to benefit from domestic manufacturing expansion and import substitution incentives.
On the downside, tobacco faces pressure from higher minimum retail prices for cigarettes and additional supplementary duties on nicotine-related products and inputs.
BRAC EPL assessed the impact as moderately negative for British American Tobacco Bangladesh due to higher tax burden and margin pressure.
Steel producers also face headwinds from higher specific VAT on mild steel products at production stage, increasing cost pressure across the sector.
BSRM Steel, BSRM Limited and GPH Ispat are expected to face higher costs if increases cannot be fully passed through.
Beyond sectoral shifts, BRAC EPL said the budget signals a broader move toward capital market deepening, bond financing, digitalisation, export facilitation and formalisation. The direction points to stronger long-term investment channels alongside tighter compliance requirements.
The brokerage added that execution will determine whether the policy changes translate into earnings growth, stronger investment and improved valuations.
