Iran and the United States are edging closer to a memorandum of understanding that would transform the existing ceasefire into a more lasting settlement, though officials on both sides caution that a final deal remains “a work in progress.”
According to analysis by CNN’s Tim Lister, Frederik Pleitgen and Aida Karimi, the central premise is straightforward: once signed, the memo would stop the fighting – welcome news for a US president facing midterm elections amid soaring gasoline prices and an Iranian economy in crisis.
The agreement would then see the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and trigger a 60-day process to tackle outstanding issues, chief among them Iran’s nuclear programme.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there was “a pretty solid thing on the table” regarding reopening the strait and Iran entering “a real significant time limited negotiation on nuclear matters.”
‘No dust, no dollars’
A senior administration official told CNN that the framework gives both parties 60 days to reach final deal points. The potential deal would ensure Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon and commit it to giving up highly enriched uranium — what President Donald Trump calls “nuclear dust.”
“The important part of how this is structured is, if Iran doesn’t perform, they don’t get anything. No dust? No dollars. As the Strait opens, the blockade loosens proportionately,” the official said.
However, Iranian officials have offered different interpretations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Monday that while understandings have been reached on a large portion of issues, “to say this means an agreement is about to be signed — no one can make such a claim.”
Key issues at stake
Strait of Hormuz: Trump wrote that the critical waterway would reopen under the memorandum. But multiple Iranian media outlets reported Sunday that the strait would remain under Iranian supervision, with shipping returning to pre-war levels over 30 days. Iran is demanding the US blockade on its ports be lifted simultaneously, though Trump insisted the blockade “will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.”
Uranium stocks: Iranian officials insist negotiations about uranium can only begin once a memorandum ending the war is agreed. The semi-official Fars news agency said Iran has made “no commitments” regarding handing over nuclear stockpiles, removing equipment, or even pledging not to build a nuclear bomb. Trump has repeatedly insisted Iran must relinquish its more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.
Frozen assets: With its economy in deep trouble, Iran is demanding the immediate unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets held overseas. A senior US official told CNN that unfreezing will occur only once the Strait of Hormuz has reopened.
Sanctions: Baghaei said lifting sanctions “will not be discussed in this short timeframe,” though Iran’s demand to lift all sanctions is “explicitly in the text.” A US official said sanctions will only be lifted once the strait is fully functioning again.
Lebanon complication
It remains unclear how the simmering conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon will be addressed. Baghaei said Monday, “Stopping the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, will be one of the elements of the possible understanding.”
Yet an Israeli source told CNN that forces will “expand operations” in Lebanon and “renew operations” in Beirut. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Monday that the military would “intensify the blows” and “increase the force” of their campaign.
Ultimately, Iran insists it is ready for a “fair and balanced deal.” As an Iranian source told CNN: “The most important thing for us is that the war must end for good in the whole Middle East.” Whether the memorandum can bridge these gaps remains the central question.
