The country enters its 13th parliamentary election under circumstances unprecedented in its 54-year history. For the first time, the Awami League—the party that led the independence struggle, ruled the country for half its independent life and dominated its political landscape for generations—will not appear on the ballot.
Since 1971, AL has been a constant presence in national elections. It boycotted only twice: in 1988 under HM Ershad’s military regime, and in February 1996 under the BNP government, demanding the creation of a neutral caretaker administration to oversee credible polls. Even in those moments, the party remained organised, vocal and structurally intact.
This time is different. AL is simply unable to participate. On 10 May, the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus imposed a sweeping ban on all activities of the party—including online—pending the completion of trials of its leaders and activists in the International Crimes Tribunal. The decision came during an emergency meeting as thousands of protesters gathered outside the chief adviser’s residence demanding a ban on the party formerly headed by Sheikh Hasina.
The ban formalised what had already become an operational collapse following the dramatic fall of the Hasina government in August 2024.
A dramatic fall after years of dominance
Sheikh Hasina, who had led AL since 1981 and governed Bangladesh uninterrupted for 16 years, fled to neighbouring India on 5 August after losing control of mass protests that erupted in July. The movement began over a controversial quota system for public sector jobs but quickly broadened into a widespread uprising against the government’s authoritarian rule.
Hasina attempted to crush the protests with force, but the effort backfired. A United Nations fact-finding mission reported that roughly 1,400 people were killed during the turmoil—one of the deadliest episodes of state violence since the country’s independence.
As the unrest spread, the state machinery faltered. Hasina’s departure by military aircraft marked a historic rupture, not only ending her long premiership but also leaving her party leaderless and exposed. Now 78, she remains in exile in India.
A party in disarray and paralysis
The centralisation of power under Hasina—which had kept the party tightly controlled—proved to be its greatest vulnerability. When she fled abruptly, AL lost its anchor. Senior figures either followed her into exile or were taken into custody, while others now face charges related to alleged crimes against humanity during the uprising.
What had been one of South Asia’s most formidable political organisations fragmented almost overnight. Factions emerged, but none possessed the authority or structure to steer a recovery. The interim government’s ban turned disarray into paralysis. What remains of AL today is a scattering of loyal grassroots networks, but no functioning institution capable of contesting an election.
A historic election under an unusual asymmetry
The implications for the February election are profound. Bangladesh is preparing to elect a new parliament without one of its principal power contenders. The absence of AL raises questions about legitimacy, representational balance and the durability of the political settlement that follows.
Rival parties may attempt to fill the vacuum, but they also inherit significant risks: governing without the country’s oldest political force may prove destabilising, especially in a system long defined by a dual political axis between AL and BNP.
A parliament formed under such asymmetry may function, legislate and endure, but to many observers it will appear incomplete—an electoral process carried out in form, if not entirely in spirit.
Uncertain future for a once-dominant party
The road ahead for AL is unclear. The party may eventually regroup under new leadership, rebrand itself and seek to re-enter national politics once legal restrictions are lifted. Its supporters could break away into emerging platforms or consolidate around a reformed core.
Alternatively, AL may fade into political memory rather than return as a dominant force.
Whatever unfolds, the exclusion of a party that helped shape the country’s national identity and political history for half a century guarantees turbulence in the years ahead. The coming election—historic in its own right—marks not just a contest for power, but a radical reconfiguration of the country’s political order.
