As election campaigning gathers pace along the Brahmaputra River, the political mood is shifting across Mymensingh’s 11 constituencies ahead of the 13th parliamentary election.
The electoral landscape in the district appears unusually fragmented this time.
An analysis of ground-level trends suggests that candidates backed by BNP are leading in six seats, while BNP rebel independents are ahead in four others. In the remaining constituency, a candidate from Jamaat-e-Islami is reported to be in front.
At the heart of Mymensingh’s contest lies a dual dynamic – the size and direction of the Awami League vote bank, and deepening internal divisions within BNP. Together, these factors are shaping the likely outcome in most constituencies.
In several seats, BNP’s most formidable challengers are no longer rival parties, but its own rebel candidates contesting as independents. In at least six constituencies, early indicators point to tight, head-to-head contests between officially nominated BNP candidates and breakaway figures from the same party.
Political analysts say the decisive factor will be where Awami League’s substantial support base ultimately gravitates. In constituencies where that vote consolidates behind a single contender, victory is likely to follow.
In a handful of seats, however, strong local loyalties and regional influence could yet tilt the balance in unexpected ways.
Seat-by-seat contests
The Mymensingh-1 (Haluaghat–Dhobaura) constituency has six candidates in the race, with BNP fielding one of its heavyweights, Joint Secretary General Syed Emran Saleh Prince.
His principal challenge comes from BNP rebel independent Salman Omar Rubel. Rubel appears to have gained ground by drawing support from voters aligned with Awami League as well as from ethnic minority communities.
Sympathy following the death of one of his supporters in election-related violence has further strengthened his position. Overall, the contest remains tight, though Rubel currently holds a slight edge.
In Mymensingh-2 (Phulpur–Tarakanda), where seven candidates are competing, the main battle is between BNP nominee Motahar Hossain Talukder and the party’s expelled former MP Shah Shahid Sarwar.
The race is being shaped by local influence and efforts to mobilise new voters. At this stage, Motahar Hossain Talukder is seen to be ahead.
Mymensingh-3 (Gauripur) features a five-way contest. BNP candidate Iqbal Hossain faces his toughest challenge from rebel contender Ahmed Tayebur Rahman Hiron, a former upazila chairman.
Ground-level assessments suggest the rebel candidate currently enjoys an advantage over the officially nominated BNP contender.
The Mymensingh-4 (Sadar) constituency has the largest field, with nine candidates vying for the seat. The contest centres on BNP Co-Organising Secretary Abu Wahab Akanda and the city ameer of Jamaat-e-Islami Maulana Kamrul Ahsan Emrul. Early indications place Wahab Akanda in the lead.
In Mymensingh-5 (Muktagacha), five candidates are in contention. The BNP nominee is Zakir Hossain, the younger brother of former state minister AKM Mosharraf Hossain. His main rival is Jamaat central leader Advocate Matiur Rahman Akand. For now, the seat appears relatively secure for BNP.
In Mymensingh-6 (Fulbaria), five candidates are in the race. BNP has nominated Akhtarul Alam, while Jamaat-e-Islami has fielded Kamrul Hasan Milon. The contest is complicated by the presence of two rebel candidates—one from each party.
Among them, BNP rebel Akhtar Sultana is seen as particularly strong. With BNP votes likely to be split in a three-cornered contest, Jamaat candidate Milon currently appears to be benefiting.
In Mymensingh-7 (Trishal), six candidates are contesting the seat, including two BNP rebel independents. Despite this, BNP nominee Mahbubur Rahman Liton is maintaining a lead. His main challenger is Jamaat candidate Asaduzzaman Sohel. Analysts warn, however, that if the rebels manage to draw a significant share of the vote, Liton could face serious difficulties.
Mymensingh-8 (Ishwarganj) has the smallest field in the district, with just four candidates. BNP contender Lutfullahil Majed Babu is widely regarded as being in a comfortable position.
Jamaat has no candidate here, though former BNP leader Shah Nurul Kabir is contesting under the banner of the Islami Andolan Bangladesh. He is considered BNP’s closest rival in the constituency.
In Mymensingh-9 (Nandail), the race has taken on the character of a family contest. BNP candidate Yasir Khan Chowdhury is facing his aunt, rebel contender Hasina Khan Chowdhury, who is also the wife of former BNP MP Khurram Khan Chowdhury.
Ground reports suggest Hasina Chowdhury is currently ahead. The contest is shaping up as a three-way fight involving Bangladesh Democratic Party candidate Anwarul Islam, alongside the two BNP figures.
In Mymensingh-10 (Gafargaon), BNP’s relatively new candidate Aktaruzzaman Bacchu is up against veteran rebel contender AB Siddiqul Rahman. Among the nine candidates in the race, regional influence appears to favour Siddiqul Rahman, who is currently leading. The principal contest is expected to be between him and the BNP nominee.
Finally, Mymensingh-11 (Bhaluka)—an industrial hub—has five candidates. The main fight is between BNP nominee Fakhruddin Ahmed Bacchu and rebel independent Morshed Alam. So far, field-level assessments indicate that Fakhruddin Ahmed Bacchu holds the advantage.
According to the district election office, Mymensingh’s 11 constituencies have a total of 4,483,091 registered voters, including 2,240,586 men and 2,242,470 women. Voting will take place at 1,360 polling centres, covering 8,742 polling booths. Of these, 583 centres have been identified as high-risk.
