Cautious optimism is emerging that the war involving Iran may be approaching a turning point, as diplomatic efforts intensify and mediators report progress on key sticking points.
However, significant differences, particularly over Tehran’s nuclear programme, continue to cast uncertainty over the prospects for a lasting peace.
A breakthrough appears to have been made on several “sticky issues” during back-channel diplomacy led by Pakistan, raising hopes that a second round of talks could resume soon.
Donald Trump has also expressed confidence that an agreement could reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies flow.
The closure of the strait in recent weeks has sent shockwaves through global markets, triggering a historic surge in oil prices and prompting warnings from international financial institutions about the risk of a global economic downturn.
Pakistan’s mediation gains momentum
Pakistan has emerged as a central player in efforts to de-escalate the conflict. Field Marshal Asim Munir, a key mediator, arrived in Tehran this week following marathon talks in Islamabad that ended without a formal agreement.
Despite the lack of a breakthrough in those discussions, officials say the latest diplomatic push has revived hopes of extending the current two-week ceasefire and bringing both sides back to the negotiating table. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that both Washington and Tehran are willing to resume talks, although no date has yet been finalised.
Meanwhile, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that American forces remain ready to resume military operations if negotiations collapse, underscoring the fragile nature of the current pause in hostilities.
Shift towards interim deal
With a comprehensive peace agreement still out of reach, negotiators are now focusing on a more limited interim arrangement aimed at preventing a return to full-scale conflict.
Sources indicate that both sides are considering a temporary memorandum that could stabilise the situation while allowing more time for complex issues to be resolved.
At the heart of the dispute is Iran’s nuclear programme. Key disagreements persist over the fate of enriched uranium stockpiles and the duration of any suspension of nuclear activities. While some progress has reportedly been made in narrowing these gaps, the issue remains the primary obstacle to a final deal.
Iran is seeking partial sanctions relief, including the unfreezing of financial assets, in exchange for easing restrictions on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Proposals under discussion include allowing ships to pass safely along designated routes, particularly on the Omani side of the strait.
Diplomats say that if an interim agreement is reached, it could provide a 60-day window for negotiating a comprehensive settlement, potentially involving oversight from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Israel continues to bomb Lebanon
The broader regional context continues to complicate negotiations. A parallel conflict in Lebanon, involving Israeli operations against Hezbollah, remains a critical factor.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been engaged in discussions over a possible ceasefire in Lebanon, though conflicting reports suggest that direct talks with Lebanese leadership are not imminent.
Pakistan has emphasised that any durable agreement between the US and Iran must also address the situation in Lebanon, reflecting concerns that unresolved tensions there could undermine wider peace efforts.
Calls for peace grow louder
Amid the geopolitical manoeuvring, moral voices have also called for an end to the conflict. Pope Leo XIV has criticised world leaders for prioritising military spending over human welfare, warning against the misuse of religion to justify violence.
“The masters of war pretend not to know that it takes only a moment to destroy, yet often a lifetime is not enough to rebuild,” he said, urging a decisive shift towards peace and dialogue.
