US President Donald Trump has issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, warning Tehran to “make a deal” or reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face severe consequences.
“Time is running out. 48 hours before all hell will break loose,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, escalating rhetoric as the war enters its sixth week with no sign of talks.
The warning came as Iranian forces searched for a missing US airman after two American warplanes were reportedly downed over Iran and the Gulf, underscoring growing risks for US and Israeli aircraft despite claims of air superiority.
Missing US airman raises stakes
A US F-15 fighter jet was reportedly shot down in southern Iran. The pilot has been rescued, but a weapons systems officer remains missing.
Iranian authorities have urged citizens to locate the airman and are reportedly offering rewards.
If captured and publicly displayed, it would mark a propaganda win for Tehran and a political setback for Washington, potentially giving Iran leverage in stalled diplomacy.
Iranian officials said domestically produced air defence systems downed the aircraft, calling it a “humiliation” for the US and Israel.
Tehran also claims it is moving towards full control of its airspace.
Iran unlikely to relent
US intelligence assessments suggest Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz soon, as control of the waterway remains its strongest leverage.
The strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, has been disrupted by Iranian actions.
Analysts say Tehran may continue restrictions to keep energy prices high and pressure Washington.
Trump has downplayed the challenge, suggesting US forces could reopen the route if needed.
Experts warn any such operation would be risky. The narrow waterway makes vessels vulnerable to drones, missiles and naval mines, even if coastal areas are secured.
Escalation risks grow
Military analysts warn forcing the strait open could trigger a broader, prolonged conflict and draw the US deeper into war.
Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping has already strengthened its leverage, raising concerns the conflict could ultimately bolster Tehran’s regional position.
Some analysts say Iran may seek to formalise control by imposing transit fees in the future.
Pressure builds in Washington
Trump is reportedly considering a cabinet reshuffle as domestic pressure mounts from rising fuel prices and falling approval ratings ahead of midterm elections.
Sources say several senior officials, including intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, are under scrutiny.
Trump’s recent address drew mixed reactions, with some insiders saying it failed to reassure the public and allies.
Iran signals limited openness
Despite its stance, Iran has indicated conditional willingness to engage in talks through mediation by Pakistan.
“We are deeply grateful to Pakistan for its efforts,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said, adding any deal must ensure a “conclusive and lasting end” to the war.
He gave no indication Tehran would accept US terms outright.
Iran also reportedly carried out a drone strike on an Israeli-linked vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening pressure on the key route.
UN vote delayed
A United Nations Security Council vote on the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed, reflecting divisions among member states.
The Bahrain-backed proposal would have authorised “all necessary defensive means” to secure passage for six months.
The delay highlights deep disagreement over how to respond to the crisis.
