Benjamin Netanyahu had bet that a joint war alongside Donald Trump would bring down Iran’s clerical leadership and strengthen his own position ahead of domestic elections, positioning himself as the architect of a US–Israeli alliance aimed at reshaping the Middle East.
Instead, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister now finds himself on a collision path with Trump, as the US president moves to disengage from the conflict, reports Reuters.
Both leaders have failed to achieve their core objectives, while Israeli military operations remain tied down in Lebanon.
Israeli officials have so far remained cautious in public, wary of upsetting their most important ally, who is known for reacting sharply to criticism. However, in private, frustration runs deep.
The preliminary agreement is “terrible for Israel,” said one senior Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity. “And there is no one in the Israeli leadership who views it otherwise, from the prime minister to the chief of staff.”
Washington says that over the next 60 days, during a ceasefire period, it will negotiate full terms aimed at addressing US and Israeli concerns, particularly over Iran’s nuclear programme.
However, Israeli officials told Reuters they expect the negotiating window under the deal could be extended, limiting Israel’s ability to take military action while its concerns remain unresolved.
Netanyahu and Trump have repeatedly disagreed over Israel’s refusal to restrict its campaign against Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, where a halt in hostilities forms a central Iranian demand.
Earlier this month, Trump reportedly described Netanyahu as “fucking crazy” during a heated phone call, ordering him not to strike Beirut while Washington pursued a deal with Iran.
Netanyahu called off attacks that same day, but later struck Beirut’s southern suburbs a week afterwards, triggering Iranian missile strikes on Israel and prompting public criticism from Trump directed at both sides.
Just hours before the US and Iran announced their interim agreement, Israel carried out another strike on the Lebanese capital on Sunday after rockets were fired from Lebanon, which Trump dismissed as “small and meaningless”.
Netanyahu, however, said Israel had emerged “strong and steady”, with leadership that is firm and wise. At a press conference in Jerusalem on Monday evening, he acknowledged differences with Trump.
“He is the president of the United States, I am the prime minister of Israel. We many times see eye-to-eye and there are times when we see eye-to-eye less so. I am in charge of Israel’s security interests,” Netanyahu said.
Facing elections expected in the autumn, which he is projected to lose, Netanyahu may be increasingly willing to defy Trump as domestic public opinion in Israel shows growing scepticism about the US president’s commitment to Israeli security.
“This is a pretty stark moment of divergence of interests,” said Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel under the Obama administration and now at the Atlantic Council.
“He will try to not openly oppose (the deal), so as not to get into a brawl with Trump,” said Shapiro. “But he will indicate Israel is not bound by it, and Israel reserves its rights.”
Israel says it is not bound by US-Iran pact
The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is expected to be signed on Friday in Switzerland.
While full details have not been disclosed, mediator Pakistan said the agreement calls for a permanent halt to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Netanyahu said Israel would keep its forces in southern Lebanon and maintain “freedom of action” against Hezbollah attacks.
“Iran wanted us to withdraw from it but I stood firm,” he told reporters. “We are keeping our freedom of action and we are keeping the security zone to protect (Israel’s) northern citizens,” he said.
The interim deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint, while leaving Iran’s nuclear programme to be addressed during a 60-day negotiation period towards a final settlement.
Two other issues previously cited by Netanyahu and Trump as reasons for the war curbing Iran’s missile programme and ending its support for regional armed groups are not expected to feature in the talks.
Three Israeli officials said Israel believes it is highly likely the 60-day arrangement will be extended to 90 days, with the US maintaining its military presence in the region while broader negotiations continue.
Two other officials said Israel was caught off guard last week when Trump first indicated that a deal with Iran was close, adding that Israel has had limited influence over the talks.
All officials spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly.
Netanyahu ‘unable to sell this agreement to Israeli public’, analyst says
Netanyahu, who frequently clashed with Washington under Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, has long presented himself to Israeli voters as uniquely capable of managing relations with Republican Trump.
During Trump’s first term, Israel secured major policy gains, including the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem and support for the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
Trump also abandoned the nuclear deal with Iran negotiated under Obama, which Israel had long opposed.
During the 2019 elections, Netanyahu displayed large campaign billboards across Tel Aviv and Jerusalem showing him shaking hands with Trump.
However, the new US–Iran agreement now weakens Netanyahu’s argument that his close ties with Trump give him a political advantage, said Jonathan Rynhold, a political scientist at Bar-Ilan University.
“(Netanyahu) will be unable to sell this agreement to the Israeli public,” Rynhold said. “The best that he can hope for is that they fail to reach an agreement and the war restarts to Israel’s advantage in 60 days.”
A poll published on Friday by the Israel Democracy Institute showed that only 41 per cent of Jewish Israelis now believe Trump prioritises their security, down from 64 per cent in March.
Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy minister, said Israel would act independently if Iran rebuilds its nuclear and missile capabilities, although he assessed the likelihood of Tehran doing so during Trump’s tenure as low.
“If Iran tries to renew its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes – we will be there and act,” Cohen told Israel’s public broadcaster Kan.
