For anyone with skin in the game on the Dhaka or Chattogram stock market, 12 April, Sunday, is more than just another session. It is a real test of resolve.
After the 60.3-point slide seen on Thursday, which brought the DSEX down to 5,258, it is only natural for investors to feel anxious. But the index alone does not tell the whole story.
To navigate what is coming in the market, investors have to look past the surface at the global tensions and the quiet regulatory shifts that are currently taking shape.
The Thursday reality check
The drop last Thursday was not a fluke. It was a “risk-off” reaction to the rising temperature in the Middle East. With the threat of an Iran-US confrontation looming, many investors hit the sell button to protect their capital.
The numbers were telling as turnover dipped to around Tk780 crore, and only 68 securities managed to stay in the green.
While the mood was defensive, the correction has left many quality stocks at levels that are now starting to attract bargain hunters.
The Strait of Hormuz and your portfolio
The single biggest wildcard for Sunday remains the Strait of Hormuz. Since roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil flows through the passage, any threat of closure is an immediate risk to Bangladesh’s energy costs and domestic inflation.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have already warned that Brent crude could test the $115 range or even $140 in a severe shock scenario.
That explains why heavy pressure was seen on energy-dependent sectors like engineering and textiles earlier in the week.
However, recent reports that Iran is working on a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the waterway are being viewed by some as a step towards de-escalation.
Bracing for macro headwinds
We have to be realistic about the broader economic environment. The World Bank recently cut its growth forecast for Bangladesh to 3.9 per cent for FY2025-26. While inflation eased slightly to 8.71 per cent in March, it remains “sticky”.
The central bank is keeping the repo rate high at 10 per cent to stabilise the taka, which has held steady at around 122.31 per dollar.
That protects the currency, but it also means borrowing costs for listed companies will stay high for longer.
In a volatile market, look to the heavyweights for stability. Banks like City Bank and Prime Bank have posted strong results, both declaring 30 per cent dividends for 2025.
These are proof of corporate resilience. Furthermore, while there has been some foreign selling in companies like Grameenphone and BRAC Bank, the overall market P/E ratio has dipped to a historic low of 8.6.
For value investors, that level suggests the market is significantly undervalued compared to its historical average.
Sunday’s pulse: what to watch
So, what happens when the bell rings on Sunday? Expect a mix of early caution followed by selective buying. Keep an eye on LafargeHolcim as it resumes trading, and Agrani Insurance as it enters the spot market.
Also, the Bangladesh Securities and Exchange Commission (BSEC) has recently lowered the SME board entry threshold to Tk 10 lakh, which is a move aimed at improving liquidity in smaller, high-growth firms.
Investing is not about avoiding risk. It is about managing it. The advice for Sunday is simple. Stay disciplined. Avoid panic selling that locks in losses. History shows that global markets often recover quickly from short-lived geopolitical shocks as fundamentals reassert themselves.
Keep a small cash reserve, roughly 10 to 15 per cent, to pick up undervalued blue-chips, and prioritise companies with a solid dividend history.
Sunday may be a tightrope walk, but for the patient investor, it could also be the start of a recovery. Invest with data, not just emotion.
The author is a Vice President at the Bangladesh-American Chamber of Commerce USA Inc. The views expressed in the article are his own and do not reflect those of any organisation.
