Analysis of financial data during United States President Donald Trump’s second term reveals a recurring trend of significant market activity occurring just before major presidential announcements.
A BBC investigation into trading volumes indicates that investors have repeatedly wagered millions of dollars on specific outcomes mere minutes or hours before social media posts or media interviews were made public.
While some analysts suggest these patterns bear the hallmarks of illegal insider trading using non-public information, others argue that certain traders have simply become highly proficient at anticipating the president’s moves.
Significant spikes in oil and equity markets
Energy markets have seen some of the most dramatic fluctuations. On 9 March 2026, nine days into the US-Israel conflict with Iran, Trump informed CBS News that the war was “very complete, pretty much.”
Bloomberg data shows that Brent crude oil futures were trading at a volume of 884 at 18:00 GMT, but this volume surged to 4,141 by 18:28 GMT – 47 minutes before the interview was publicised on X.
Once the news became public, oil prices fell by approximately 25 per cent, potentially netting early traders millions in profit.
A similar pattern was observed on 23 March 2026, when a Truth Social post regarding a “complete and total resolution” to hostilities with Tehran was preceded by a surge in oil bets 14 minutes before the announcement. One analyst described these trades as “abnormal, for sure”.
Beyond the energy sector, the “Liberation Day” tariff pause on 9 April 2025 saw the S&P 500 index jump by 9.5 per cent. Ahead of the 18:18 BST announcement, trading contracts for a fund tracking the index spiked from a few hundred to over 10,000 per minute starting at 18:00 BST.
Investors who bet over $2 million on a market rise – despite a week of consecutive losses – could have generated profits approaching $20 million.
Scrutiny of prediction platforms and legal hurdles
The growth of blockchain-based prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has further intensified scrutiny. President Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr, is an investor and advisory board member for Polymarket and a strategic advisor to Kalshi.
In one notable case, an account named “Burdensome-Mix” won $436,000 by wagering $32,500 that Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office; Maduro was ousted by US special forces the following day.
Furthermore, six accounts created in February 2026 earned a combined $1.2 million by betting on US strikes in Iran before they were officially confirmed.
Following the tariff pause, several senior Democrats in the US Senate requested that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) investigate whether these announcements were used to enrich administration insiders.
While the SEC declined to comment and the White House did not respond to specific requests for comment, spokesman Davis Ingle has previously dismissed such allegations as “baseless and irresponsible.”
Legal experts highlight the difficulty of prosecuting such cases. Although insider trading laws were extended to government officials in 2012, no one has yet been prosecuted under them.
Paul Oudin, a professor at ESSEC Business School, noted that while massive trades clearly indicate someone was privy to the president’s plans, financial authorities often struggle to identify the specific source of the leak, meaning there is a “strong chance that no-one will be prosecuted.”
