Russia has warned NATO it would be ready to use nuclear weapons if the alliance tried to cut off Kaliningrad, its Baltic Sea exclave, according to a diplomatic note seen by Reuters.
In the document, Moscow accused NATO of pursuing a “dangerous and reckless course” that carried “high risks of the outbreak of a direct armed conflict”.
The note said Russia would be prepared to use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, to defend its territory if NATO tried to isolate the region from the rest of the country.
It also raised the possibility of Russian strikes on decision-making centres in NATO member states from the outset, reports Reuters.
The warning underlines Moscow’s urgent concern at what it presents as a growing NATO threat to Kaliningrad, a heavily militarised territory wedged between Poland and Lithuania and slightly bigger than the US state of Connecticut.
In a commentary on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s website, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova cited statements by dignitaries from NATO states which she said showed “Russophobia” and a readiness to wage war on Moscow.
She wrote that these figures needed to be brought back down to earth and that Russia hoped its warnings would be heeded.
It added that if Europe attacked Russia, it would be a completely different sort of war, and a very short one.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance had replied that it was “a defensive alliance” and told Russia to stop the nuclear threats, calling them unwarranted and unhelpful.
NATO’s response, also seen by Reuters, said none of its exercises or activities posed a threat to Russian territory.
It urged Russia to end its unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine, refrain from increasingly reckless behaviour towards allies and cease its irresponsible nuclear rhetoric.
Asked at a Euronews-hosted defence conference in Brussels whether the risk of nuclear weapons being used against the Baltic states was now real, Rutte answered “No, it’s not”.
He said Putin knew he could never win against NATO, so he did not take the threat very seriously.
Russian embassies in at least three European countries have also issued statements in the past three days accusing NATO of raising tensions through exercises and planning scenarios involving Kaliningrad.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the statements as diplomatic reminders to “hotheads in Europe”.
Relations, already dire since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, have worsened sharply this year, with European governments accusing Moscow of stepping up a “hybrid war” on the continent through sabotage and arson.
Russia denies this and rejects repeated claims by Western politicians that it is gearing up for a military attack on a NATO country.
Nikolai Sokov, a Vienna-based nuclear analyst and former Russian diplomat, said it was becoming harder for Western countries to keep stepping up support for Ukraine without tipping into direct confrontation with Moscow.
He said the warning may show hardliners gaining influence in the debate over how to respond to Western actions, including arms supplies to Kyiv, new sanctions, interceptions of Russian ships, frequent military exercises and intelligence flights near Kaliningrad.
Russia expects further action, including a blockade of the Baltic Sea, Sokov said.
Europe would see that as just short of war, he added, but Moscow would regard it as open war, and he saw a risk of “mutual miscalculation”.
In an online interview, he said Russia and Europe were on a collision course and that both sides needed caution.
Instead, he said, Europeans were applying “full-court pressure” while Russia was giving a serious warning that this was highly risky.
A NATO diplomat called the Russian letter another attempt to intimidate Europeans, saying NATO’s response was firm and responsible and showed the alliance would not be dissuaded from supporting Ukraine.
A senior European defence official said it was the first time since the Cold War that Russia had threatened Europe in this way, calling it serious.
