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Relief over Iran truce fades

Relief over Iran truce fades
Iranians in Tehran react to cease fire announcement. Photo: AFP/BSS
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Initial relief following a truce between the United States and Iran quickly gave way to renewed alarm on Wednesday, as violence continued to escalate across the Middle East. While Washington and Tehran appeared to step back from direct confrontation, Israel launched its largest wave of attacks yet on Lebanon, and Iran reportedly struck critical oil infrastructure in Gulf states.

Media reports say Iran on Wednesday halted traffic on the Strait of Hormuz after letting a couple of vessels pass, threatening to withdraw from the ceasefire with the United States if Israel continued to attack Lebanon amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia.

Global financial markets had briefly rallied after Donald Trump announced the truce late Tuesday—just hours before a deadline he had set for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its “whole civilisation.”

Although the US-Iran truce initially raised hopes of de-escalation, ongoing military actions in Lebanon and across the Gulf underscore the fragility of the situation. With regional powers on edge, critical infrastructure under attack, and global markets watching closely, the Middle East remains dangerously close to a broader and prolonged conflict.

Global push for diplomacy amid fragile ceasefire

Leaders from Britain, Germany, Japan, Canada, and other European nations issued a joint statement calling for “a swift and lasting end to the war” in Iran. They also pledged to ensure freedom of navigation through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Kremlin also welcomed the ceasefire, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov calling for peace based on a balance of regional interests.

However, debate continues within Russia over the broader implications of the conflict. While some analysts argue that disruptions in global energy markets have economically benefited Russia as a major oil and fertiliser exporter, others caution that ongoing instability—including Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure—complicates any clear gains.

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Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he had invited both Iranian and US delegations to Islamabad for what could be the first formal peace talks of the conflict on Friday. While Tehran has confirmed participation, Washington has yet to officially commit, with the White House stating that no meeting is confirmed until formally announced.

Trump, in a post on Truth Social, claimed Iran had agreed to “many of the 15 points” of a ceasefire framework. Iranian media, however, reported that Tehran had submitted a separate 10-point proposal, including controlled transit through Hormuz under Iranian oversight and a full withdrawal of US forces from regional bases, along with sanctions relief.

Trump reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to enrich uranium and claimed the country had effectively undergone “regime change,” with Mojtaba Khamenei assuming a more prominent leadership role.

Israel escalates offensive in Lebanon

Despite the truce with Iran, Israel intensified its parallel military campaign in Lebanon. Massive airstrikes targeted multiple locations, sending plumes of smoke over Beirut and other areas.

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Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned the strikes, particularly those hitting densely populated civilian areas, warning that such actions undermine regional peace efforts.

The Israeli military stated it had struck more than 100 Hezbollah command centres across Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon. However, many of these locations were reportedly within civilian structure.

The strikes resulted in dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, with residents reporting little to no prior warning before the attack.

Regional fallout: Gulf infrastructure targeted

Even after the ceasefire was expected to take effect, Gulf countries—including Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain—reported fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting oil, power, and desalination facilities.

An industry source indicated that Saudi Arabia’s key east-west oil pipeline to the Red Sea had been struck, potentially disrupting one of the few routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

US military claims success

At a Pentagon briefing, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine outlined the operations of the US military campaign, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.”

Hegseth claimed the operation had achieved “every single objective,” including crippling Iran’s naval and missile capabilities, and asserted that Tehran would “never possess a nuclear weapon.”

Dan Caine said:

Over 10,000 flight missions, including 62 bomber missions.

13,000 targets struck across Iran.

Interception of 1,700 ballistic missiles and drones.

Massive logistical support, including over 6 million meals and nearly 1 million gallons of coffee consumed

Political backlash in the US

Despite official claims of success, anti-war protests have intensified across the United States. Demonstrators argue that Trump’s temporary pause in military action does not resolve the underlying conflict and have called for his removal from office, warning of broader global instability.

Trump threatens tariffs on Iran’s allies

Even as diplomatic efforts continue, Trump issued fresh warnings to countries supporting Iran.

“Any country supplying military weapons to Iran will face immediate 50% tariffs on all goods exported to the United States,” he said on Truth Social, adding that there would be “no exemptions.”

Shipping crisis in the Strait of Hormuz

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain, with global shipping companies adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach.

According to shipping data, around 187 oil tankers carrying approximately 172 million barrels of crude remain stranded in the strait. In total, more than 1,000 vessels are awaiting clearance, and experts estimate it could take over two weeks to normalise traffic even under stable conditions.

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