Bangladesh’s ongoing power crisis is not due to a lack of generation capacity but a shortage of fuel, foreign currency and timely policy decisions, according to energy experts.
They said the government already has several options to ease the crisis — increasing LNG imports, ensuring coal supplies, raising furnace oil-based generation, importing more electricity and accelerating rooftop solar — but delays in decision-making have kept much of the available capacity idle.
Government data shows that electricity generation has already exceeded current demand on several occasions. Despite a shortfall of around 3,000MW in recent weeks, demand remains close to 17,000MW, while the country generated 17,201MW on 20 May.
Energy sector officials said the figures show that generation capacity is not the main problem.
“If fuel supply can be ensured, increasing electricity generation is largely a matter of decision-making,” they said.
They pointed out that furnace oil-based power plants could immediately increase production if operating costs are reduced. Furnace oil imports currently carry 37 per cent tax and VAT, which the government can consider lowering during the crisis.
M Shamsul Alam, energy adviser to the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB), said the government must choose among several options to address the shortage.
“The government either has to increase LNG purchases, raise coal supplies, buy fuel oil, or import electricity. All of these require additional dollars, but the government cannot arrange the necessary foreign currency. As a result, fuel imports are declining, electricity imports are falling, and load shedding is increasing,” he told TIMES.
He said the crisis is mainly a financial one.
“The government cannot bear the rising costs, while consumers cannot absorb further price increases. The government must identify where costs have increased, reform the cost structure and reduce unnecessary expenditure.”
Bangladesh currently has more than 33,000MW of installed generation capacity, but actual production has fallen below 14,000MW due to fuel shortages and operational problems.
Gas-based plants have a combined capacity of 12,472MW, but output has dropped below 5,000MW due to LNG supply disruptions. Rising global LNG prices, disruptions at Qatar’s Ras Laffan facilities and instability in the Strait of Hormuz have affected shipments. Bangladesh is now buying LNG from the spot market at higher prices, adding pressure on foreign currency reserves.
Coal-based plants have a capacity of 8,423MW, but current output is around 4,500MW. Barapukuria remains partly shut due to technical issues, while Rampal and Payra are facing coal shortages. Rampal generated only 370MW against a capacity of 1,320MW during Wednesday’s peak hours, while Payra produced around 570MW as one unit remained shut.
Coal shortages have also reduced output from India’s Adani Power plant, which is producing around 900MW during the day and 1,300MW at night against a capacity of 1,600MW. Bangladesh has limited control over this issue.
Experts said oil-based plants offer the quickest opportunity to increase generation. These plants have a combined capacity of 6,409MW but are producing around 3,322MW during peak hours. The government has asked private producers to raise output to 4,000MW, but high furnace oil costs remain a challenge due to 37 per cent tax, duty and VAT on imports.
Experts also said rooftop solar could reduce pressure on the national grid. Former Power Cell director general BD Rahmatullah said Bangladesh could have added 4,000 to 5,000MW of rooftop solar capacity within six months with proper incentives.
The government’s cancellation of 37 solar projects has raised questions, while 11 solar projects with nearly 1,000MW of capacity were reportedly approved later without details being disclosed.
Bangladesh can import up to 2,696MW of electricity from India, but current imports are around 2,200MW.
According to PDB and PGCB data, production at around 60 to 62 power plants is affected, with nearly 20 plants shut. Among them, 26 are gas-fired, 33 are liquid fuel-based and two are coal-based.
Power Grid Bangladesh data shows that peak demand on Wednesday was 17,345MW, while daytime load shedding reached 2,320MW.
Rahmatullah said delays in decision-making were worsening the crisis.
“If importing gas is difficult, liquid fuel must be brought from countries such as Malaysia, China or Indonesia — sources outside conflict zones. This depends on political decisions and policy courage,” he said.
