The interim government’s announcement that the national election and a referendum will be held simultaneously in early February has triggered rapid recalibration across Bangladesh’s political spectrum.
Parties long rivals in public are now quietly reassessing the shifting contours of power—fuelled by the emerging prospect of a BNP-led government if conditions allow a competitive vote.
According to multiple political insiders, a cluster of parties—including Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, National Citizen Party (NCP), and Gono Odhikar Parishad—are manoeuvring for potential post-election leverage. Their calculations echo the Awami League era, when the Jatiya Party remained nominally in opposition yet enjoyed a share of state power. Several mid-tier parties are now exploring whether a similar arrangement could be struck under a future BNP-led administration.
Public antagonism, private proximity
Despite delivering increasingly sharp criticism of BNP, the largest political party of the country, in rallies and press briefings, these parties are said to be maintaining discreet channels of communication with the opposition alliance. None have acknowledged such talks publicly, but senior officials across multiple groups admit that the question of power-sharing—more than ideology—is shaping political behaviour.
Sources say Jamaat and several smaller parties want either a pre-election understanding or a formal seat-sharing arrangement with the BNP. The logic is clear few of them are confident about securing meaningful parliamentary representation on their own, yet they sense that the BNP is not guaranteed a solo majority. “Taking no chances” has become the dominant strategy.
BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir told TIMES of Bangladesh, “When elections take place, the party that performs well forms the government—that is natural. We remember those who were involved in the anti-fascist movement in the past. We want to go to the elections with them.”
“BNP’s doors are open for them,” added the veteran politician.
BNP has long demanded that the referendum on the implementation of the July Charter be held on election day. Jamaat and seven other parties, however, sought a referendum beforehand. The compromise arrived on 13 November, when Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus declared that both would take place on the same day.
New realities, new political stakes
The interim administration’s sweeping reform package primarily includes a bicameral parliament and full implementation of the July Charter within 180 working days of government formation.
BNP has welcomed these steps, positioning itself as the natural steward of the reform agenda. Jamaat and others, however, argue that the process disproportionately benefits the BNP—while simultaneously keeping lines open for “strategic cooperation”.
Jamaat’s internal readings are becoming increasingly sober. After a series of student union election victories at the major public universities, the party initially believed it was gaining nationwide momentum. But recent national-level polling dynamics suggest otherwise, raising pressure to re-evaluate alliances.
Yet publicly, Jamaat remains defiant. Assistant Secretary General AHM Hamidur Rahman Azad told TIMES, “There is no question of discussing or negotiating seat-sharing with the BNP; this is only propaganda. Jamaat has strong electoral preparations nationwide, and the people will decide in the upcoming election who will come to power.”
He added that recent student union polls reflect “the true will of the people” and alleged that elements involved in extortion and land-grabbing are spreading misinformation about Jamaat to escape electoral consequences.
Talks in silence
Despite official denials, reports of clandestine meetings involving BNP leaders and representatives from Jamaat, NCP and Gono Odhikar Parishad have spread through political circles. Privately, BNP leaders acknowledge that talks with Gono Odhikar Parishad are more advanced, while discussions regarding Jamaat remain unresolved. A senior BNP leader said the party is open to considering NCP if it “comes without preconditions”.
BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed has been vocal about the need for a wider anti-fascist alliance.
“BNP wants to contest the election with those parties that were part of the anti-fascist movement in the past. BNP is always generous,” he recently said.
Another senior BNP figure was more blunt, saying, “If a free, fair and neutral election is held in February, the BNP will have the advantage.”
He claimed that several parties publicly hostile to BNP are “quietly exploring an understanding”. In his view, these groups aspire to replicate Jatiya Party’s hybrid model under the Awami League—opposition in name, but stakeholders in power.
Analysts on the grand coalition question
Political analysts agree that nothing is guaranteed. Formal agreements among these parties remain elusive, but as the election draws closer, the gravitational pull toward a broad coalition is likely to intensify.
