Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury on Thursday said the evolving global conditions pose direct and material risks to Bangladesh’s macroeconomic stability, as the country remains highly dependent on imports, external trade and remittance inflows.
He made the remarks while unveiling the national budget for the FY2026–27 fiscal year in Parliament.
He said recent developments in the Middle East have added further risks to the global economic outlook, particularly through upward pressure on energy and petroleum prices.
The minister warned that a prolonged continuation of the situation could push international fuel prices higher and increase transport and insurance costs.
He added that global shipping routes may also face disruption, creating fresh challenges for the smooth flow of international trade.
Khosru said elevated global interest rates continue to restrict international financial flows. This has increased the cost of external borrowing, trade financing and essential imports.
He noted that the post-COVID global economy has still not fully stabilised.
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections, global growth in 2026 is expected to remain around 3.3 per cent, while global inflation may hover near 3.8 per cent.
He said this indicates that global recovery remains modest and continues to face persistent uncertainty despite ongoing expansion.
The minister said that just ten days after the government assumed office, the Middle East crisis began and created significant and unexpected risks for the economic landscape.
He said the immediate impact has been most severe in the energy sector, where international prices of oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and chemical fertilisers increased sharply, in some cases more than doubling.
He added that these higher energy costs have pushed up production expenses across the power, agriculture, transport and industrial sectors. This has intensified domestic inflationary pressure and increased subsidy burdens on public finances.
Khosru also said higher import costs have further strained already pressured foreign exchange reserves.
He noted that the Middle East remains a key destination for Bangladeshi migrant workers. Any prolonged instability in the region could affect overseas employment and reduce remittance inflows, which are crucial for external sector stability.
He highlighted recent market data showing the scale of disruption in global commodity markets.
He said the global Free on Board (FOB) price of refined diesel averaged around USD 86 per barrel in February 2026. After the escalation of the conflict, prices surged to about USD 285 per barrel by April.
Similarly, LNG spot prices, which were around USD 10 per MMBtu before the crisis, rose to about USD 28.28 per MMBtu in April.
Although some easing has been seen since then, spot LNG procurement continues at significantly higher levels.
He also said the agriculture sector has faced similar pressure. The global FOB price of urea fertiliser nearly doubled, rising from about USD 422 per metric tonne to around USD 850 per metric tonne.
He said these sharp increases have placed heavy strain on an import-dependent economy, forcing Bangladesh to manage an unprecedented external supply shock with limited fiscal space.
