The recent military strikes on Iran by forces aligned with the United States and Israel have intensified fears that the existing global order is rapidly weakening, pushing the world toward greater instability and uncertainty.
Analysts warn that the unfolding crisis reflects a growing “might is right” approach in international relations, where powerful states increasingly act unilaterally, leaving smaller nations vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.
The developments echo the ancient realist notion that “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must,” highlighting the widening gap between global power politics and established norms of international law.
For countries like Bangladesh, such shifts could create long-term economic and strategic uncertainties.
The ongoing confrontation is widely viewed as an existential challenge for Iran’s leadership, with military pressure aimed at weakening or potentially reshaping the country’s governing structure.
Historically, external attacks have tended to unite Iranian society, suggesting that the conflict may become prolonged rather than short-lived.
Analysts believed the Iranian regime retains significant internal and regional support, increasing the likelihood of sustained confrontation with broader regional implications.
Former Foreign Secretary Md Shahidul Haque described the situation as a worrying sign of systemic breakdown in international orders and practices. “What we are witnessing resembles a lawless international environment,” he said.
“The existing global order appears to be eroding rapidly, while a new and stable framework has yet to emerge.”
About the crisis in Iran, Shahidul Hauqe, who served in Iran for three years, said, the fate of the regime will be determined by the people of that country.
He added that the traditional perception of Washington as a global security guarantor is increasingly being questioned.
“There is a growing sense that powerful countries can act militarily without effective restraint from international mechanisms. This creates uncertainty for smaller states that depend on rules-based stability,” he noted.
Strait of Hormuz and economic shockwaves
The crisis has also heightened concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, widely regarded as the world’s most critical energy transit corridor.
The waterway carries roughly 20–25 per cent of global oil consumption—more than 20 million barrels per day—as well as nearly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas exports, largely from Qatar.
Reports indicated that Iranian naval activity has effectively restricted transit through the strait, prompting major shipping companies such as Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd to suspend voyages through the area.
Shipping traffic has reportedly declined sharply as vessels reroute or remain idle in nearby waters. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices have surged, with analysts warning prices could exceed $100–$120 per barrel if disruptions continue.
Former Foreign Secretary Masud bin Momen cautioned that prolonged conflict would significantly affect global economic stability and increase vulnerabilities for developing economies.
“Rising energy prices and supply disruptions will weaken economic indicators and place additional pressure on societies already facing inflationary stress,” he said.
“Such shocks can eventually lead to social strain and law-and-order challenges.”
He stressed that countries like Bangladesh rely heavily on investment-driven growth.
“Economic stability and predictability are essential for attracting investors. When geopolitical uncertainty dominates, investment slows, employment generation suffers and economic vulnerabilities increase,” he added.
Need for national dialogue
Diplomatic experts believed the evolving crisis carries serious implications for Bangladesh’s economy, energy security and migration prospects.
If the conflict spreads across the wider Middle East, the consequences could be far-reaching, affecting trade routes, remittance flows and global commodity prices.
Md Shahidul Haque emphasised the importance of proactive planning. “If the crisis continues or expands, Bangladesh may face a challenging economic environment.
It is important to initiate discussions among policymakers, experts and stakeholders to determine appropriate national responses,” he said.
He suggested that the government engage economists, diplomats and security analysts to assess risks and develop contingency strategies for potential disruptions.
