The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Bangladesh’s GDP growth projection for the fiscal year 2025-26 to 4.9 percent, a decrease from its previous forecasts of 5.4 percent in July and 6.5 percent in April. The updated projection was revealed in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday.
Despite this reduction, the IMF forecasted that inflation in Bangladesh would decrease to 8.42 percent in FY26, with further easing expected to 5.06 percent in the following fiscal year.
The revised growth projection is in line with the latest assessments from other global institutions. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have estimated GDP growth for FY26 at 4.8 percent and 5 percent, respectively.
The World Bank, in its recent update, expressed cautious optimism about Bangladesh’s economic recovery, but warned that risks remain due to vulnerabilities in the banking sector and rising political uncertainty in the lead-up to the national elections. The bank also highlighted concerns over delayed reforms, potential global trade disruptions, and continued inflationary pressures.
Similarly, the ADB in its September outlook pointed to several challenges, including new US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and heightened election-related spending. The ADB also cited weaknesses in the financial system and liquidity support to struggling banks as factors that could hinder growth.
Both institutions, however, projected a decline in inflation, with the World Bank forecasting a drop to 7.4 percent in FY26 and the ADB estimating a slightly higher 8 percent.
In contrast, the interim government has set a more optimistic GDP growth target of 5.5 percent for FY26, exceeding the projections from international agencies.
