Escalating hostilities between Iran, the United States and Israel have sharply intensified tensions across the Middle East, triggering fears of a wider regional conflict with potential global consequences.
Recent attacks by Washington and its ally Tel Aviv targeted locations in Tehran and other parts of Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes by Tehran against installations it described as legitimate military targets in Israel and several Gulf countries, including Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Former Bangladesh Ambassador to Tehran AFM Gousal Azam Sarker said the situation remains highly fluid, making it difficult to predict whether the confrontation will escalate further or move towards diplomatic de-escalation.
“The scale of the US military build-up around Iran is unprecedented in recent decades. At this stage, both sides are trying to maintain strategic credibility and domestic political standing. Whether the conflict expands or shifts towards negotiation will depend on developments in the coming days,” he said.
According to Sarker, the crisis is unlikely to remain confined to the region and will inevitably affect countries far beyond the immediate conflict zone, including Bangladesh.
“This type of confrontation has global ripple effects. Political relations, economic stability and labour migration patterns could all face pressure if tensions continue,” he added.
Energy prices and economic pressure
Commodity markets are often the first to react to instability in the Middle East, a region central to global energy supply. Any prolonged conflict could push oil and gas prices significantly higher, creating economic strain for energy-importing countries.
Sarker noted that Bangladesh, as a developing and energy-dependent economy, would be particularly vulnerable. “If energy prices surge, it will increase pressure on Bangladesh’s foreign exchange reserves and raise the cost of essential commodities. The country may suffer economic consequences despite having no direct involvement in the conflict,” he said.
Higher fuel costs could also trigger inflationary pressure, affecting transportation, electricity generation and industrial production.
Migration concerns
Iran’s strikes on US-linked military assets and explosions across several Gulf states have raised concerns about the safety and stability of labour markets in the region, where millions of expatriate workers reside.
Sarker explained that Iran’s actions appear primarily directed at US interests rather than the broader region. “At the moment, Tehran’s focus seems limited to strategic targets connected to the United States. If the conflict remains contained, the migration situation may not face immediate disruption,” he said.
However, he warned that a broader regional escalation would have serious implications. More than 10 million Bangladeshis work across the Middle East, and any instability affecting Gulf economies could disrupt employment opportunities, remittance flows and worker mobility.
“If the crisis spreads across the wider Gulf region, it could directly impact Bangladeshi migrant workers and future labour migration,” he added.
Call for diplomacy
In light of the escalating tensions, Sarker emphasised the importance of diplomacy and adherence to international norms. He said Bangladesh should continue to uphold its long-standing foreign policy principle of supporting the peaceful resolution of conflicts through dialogue under the framework of the United Nations.
“War never produces lasting solutions. Its consequences extend beyond the parties directly involved and affect the global community, including smaller economies like Bangladesh,” he said.
He added that Bangladesh has historically supported the peaceful settlement of disputes and should maintain that consistent position during the current crisis.
As tensions continue to evolve, policymakers in Dhaka are closely monitoring developments, aware that the outcome of the Middle East crisis could carry significant economic and strategic implications for Bangladesh and the wider international community.
