The final major nuclear weapons control agreement between the United States and Russia is set to expire this Thursday, sparking international concern over the potential for a renewed nuclear arms race.
The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, which was signed in 2010, currently limits each nation to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads. Beyond these caps, the treaty provides essential transparency through data sharing, notifications, and on-site inspections intended to minimize the risk of military miscalculations.
Experts have warned that the expiration of New START could end decades of cooperative arms control that has helped maintain global stability since the Cold War, reports BBC.
Pope Leo has urged both Washington and Moscow to renew the pact, stating that the modern global landscape “calls for doing everything possible to avert a new arms race”.
The treaty’s looming end follows a broader erosion of international arms control frameworks. Agreements such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the Open Skies Treaty, and the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty have already collapsed, leaving a vacuum in the oversight of both nuclear and conventional forces.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, former UK Chief of Defence Staff, cautioned that the loss of these treaties represents “one of the most dangerous aspects of our current global security” due to the increasing prominence of nuclear weapons.
Internal political reactions to the expiry remain divided. Dmitry Medvedev, the former President of Russia who signed the treaty in 2010, remarked that the situation should “alarm everyone” as global powers modernize their arsenals. In contrast, US President Donald Trump has downplayed these concerns, stating last month, “if it expires, it expires… We’ll just do a better agreement”.
Reaching a successor agreement remains a significant challenge. Washington has suggested that China must be included in future deals, while Moscow has proposed the inclusion of France and the United Kingdom.
Analysts note that the development of new strategic capabilities is further complicating negotiations.
Darya Dolzikova, a senior research fellow at the UK-based RUSI, pointed out that both the US and Russia are currently modernizing their forces with advanced systems, including long-range hypersonic missiles, which may intensify global tensions.
New START originally succeeded the 1991 START treaty—which limited warheads to 6,000—and was signed in Prague. While the treaty faced a technical suspension three years ago, both nations were believed to be adhering to its terms until now.
Observers emphasize that without urgent diplomatic intervention, the world may enter a new era of uncontrolled arms competition and strategic instability.
