With the parliamentary election only hours away and a new government expected to take office next week, analysts say the incoming administration must move swiftly to address a range of foreign policy challenges alongside pressing domestic issues.
Experts believe that without a clear and effective foreign policy from the outset, it will be difficult for the government to achieve its broader national goals.
As Bangladesh prepares for a new political chapter, analysts agree that the success of the next government will depend not only on domestic governance but also on how effectively it manages complex foreign policy challenges in an uncertain global landscape.
Diplomatic observers stress that maintaining a delicate balance among major regional and global powers will be a top priority in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment. At the same time, they caution the new leadership against yielding to short-term populist pressures that could undermine Bangladesh’s long-term national interests. A strong and capable foreign ministry, led by professional diplomats, will be essential to navigate these challenges effectively.
Former ambassador Mahbub Hassan Saleh told TIMES of Bangladesh that foreign policy priorities evolve over time. “Issues in foreign relations emerge and change. For example, the Rohingya crisis was not a major concern for Bangladesh before 2017, yet today it is one of the country’s most pressing challenges,” he said. “A strong foreign ministry with capable diplomats is the most durable solution for managing shifting foreign policy challenges.”
Echoing similar concerns, another former diplomat, seeking anonymity, pointed to weak coordination within Bangladesh’s bureaucracy. “In many cases, the foreign office is not fully aware of engagements between other state institutions and foreign governments,” he said, adding that professional diplomats should be consulted before any major foreign interaction.
He also suggested that the foreign ministry should be led by a trusted and experienced political figure and supported by an independent expert group to provide research and policy recommendations.
India and the Ganges Treaty
Relations with India will remain one of the most critical components of Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Analysts say building ties based on mutual respect and trust will be a significant challenge for the new government.
“It is widely understood that Delhi has been waiting for an elected government to take office before deepening engagement,” Ambassador Saleh said. According to him, India is closely monitoring Bangladesh’s evolving political situation and will shape its strategy in response to Dhaka’s approach toward Delhi, as well as Bangladesh’s relations with China and the United States.
“India’s primary concern is security, and its level of engagement will depend on how effectively the government in Dhaka can address that concern,” he said. One major diplomatic test will be securing the renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, which is set to expire this year. “If the new government succeeds in renewing the treaty, it could help ease anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh,” Saleh added.
Another former diplomat, speaking anonymously, said the continued presence of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in India could complicate bilateral engagement. “The challenge for the new government will be to pursue a working relationship with India independent of Hasina’s presence,” he said, adding that Bangladesh must work to ease India’s security concerns while negotiating fair agreements on water sharing and preventing border killings.
Balancing global powers
Maintaining a careful balance among Washington, Beijing, and Delhi has long been a cornerstone of Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Analysts say this balancing act will become even more challenging as geopolitical dynamics continue to shift rapidly.
“The new government must sustain a critical balance among the United States, China, and India,” Ambassador Saleh said. He noted that Bangladesh will need to navigate policy decisions made by US President Donald Trump in the coming years, while India may take time to recalibrate its approach after maintaining a particularly close relationship with the previous Awami League government.
Another major challenge will be preserving preferential market access to key export destinations, especially the European Union. Following Bangladesh’s graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status, the country will receive a three-year grace period. “During this time, Bangladesh must secure GSP Plus status and prepare for negotiating a free trade agreement with the EU, which eventually will be a difficult but essential task,” Saleh said.
Rohingya crisis remains pressing
The Rohingya refugee crisis will continue to exert heavy pressure on Bangladesh’s foreign policy agenda. With more than a million Rohingya refugees living in camps in Cox’s Bazar, securing a sustainable solution remains a top priority.
“We must continue engaging Myanmar and the international community to ensure the safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation of the Rohingya population,” said another former diplomat. He acknowledged, however, that progress has been slow, partly because global powers have not prioritised the issue.
He emphasised the need for sustained diplomatic engagement at both bilateral and multilateral levels, as well as close monitoring of ongoing proceedings at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC).
