The United Nations’ weather and climate agency has warned that El Niño is set to rapidly develop into a strong event between July and September, increasing the risk of extreme weather across the globe.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said El Niño conditions have already emerged and are expected to intensify quickly, urging countries to prepare for potential impacts, reports AFP/BSS.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering shifts in wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall worldwide. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months, alternating with its cooler counterpart, La Niña.
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO said forecasts point to a “rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July–September”, placing it at the third-highest intensity level on its four-tier scale.
The agency said leading climate models show a consistent and significant rise in ocean temperatures across key monitoring regions of the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C.
“This high level of agreement among models provides strong confidence in the outlook,” the WMO said, adding that El Niño is likely to strengthen further during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with global impacts extending across many regions.
It also noted that the equatorial Atlantic is expected to remain warmer than average.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño conditions are already underway and will strengthen rapidly, heightening risks of droughts, heavy rainfall and heatwaves on land, as well as marine heatwaves.
The agency added that the last El Niño event contributed to record-breaking global temperatures, helping make 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the warmest.
While El Niño typically peaks between November and February, its most significant temperature effects often occur later.
The update predicts a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60°S and 60°N, covering nearly all populated regions outside the polar zones.
Rainfall patterns between July and September are also expected to reflect a strengthening El Niño, with above-normal rainfall in parts of the southwestern United States and below-normal rainfall across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.
The WMO said there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, but warned it can amplify their impacts by adding extra energy and moisture to the atmosphere and oceans, worsening extreme weather.
It added that El Niño can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing cyclone formation in the Atlantic during the Northern Hemisphere summer.
