Conflicting signals from United States President Donald Trump about how long the war with Iran will last have deepened uncertainty about the trajectory of the conflict, even as fighting intensifies across the Middle East and casualties continue to rise.
Over the past 24 hours, Trump has alternated between suggesting the war could end soon and warning of dramatically escalated strikes if Iran disrupts global oil flows. His remarks have contrasted sharply with statements from Iranian officials, who say Tehran – not Washington – will determine the duration of the war.
The war, which began with US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, has already triggered widespread regional instability, mounting civilian casualties, and rising global economic concerns.
According to international media report, Trump’s statements about the war have been notably inconsistent.
Late Monday afternoon, Trump suggested the timeline for the conflict was “pretty much complete”, remarks that briefly helped stabilise global financial markets.
But hours later during a news conference, he issued a stark warning. If Iran attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes, the US would strike Iran “harder than they ever have before”.
Asked directly whether the war might end this week, Trump replied “no – but pretty soon.”
Observers note that the president has frequently adjusted or extended self-imposed deadlines in past geopolitical crises, making it difficult to interpret such statements as firm commitments.
Behind the shifting rhetoric lies a complex political calculation. Trump has long hinted that the ultimate objective of the campaign could be regime change in Iran, yet that goal appears increasingly unlikely in the near term.
Tehran insists it will decide
Iranian officials have responded with a very different message.
The Iranian leadership believes it will determine how long the war continues.
Officials say Iran’s military is prepared for a prolonged war of attrition rather than a short campaign.
Across the capital, the conflict is already being felt. Residents report frequent air-defence activations and explosions as US-Israeli strikes continue.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has rejected US claims that Iran’s missile programme has been largely destroyed, insisting it continues to launch missiles in greater numbers and with heavier warheads.
In a statement, the IRGC said the latest wave of attacks used several types of missiles, including a hypersonic projectile, targeting US forces stationed at al-Dhafra airbase near Abu Dhabi and Bahrain’s Jufair base, as well as Israeli military facilities including Ramat David airbase and Haifa’s civilian airport.
Iranian missiles also reportedly struck hidden launch sites used by Israeli forces near Bnei Brak, east of Tel Aviv.
Escalating strikes and casualties
The conflict has intensified dramatically in recent days.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Tuesday could become “the most intense day of strikes” since the war began.
Tehran has experienced some of the heaviest bombardment yet. Overnight attacks near the city’s Risalat Square reportedly killed at least 40 people.
According to the deputy head of Tehran’s emergency health department, 460 people have been killed and more than 4,300 injured in the capital alone since the start of the war.
Across Iran, the death toll has climbed to more than 1,200, with over 10,000 wounded.
Iranian authorities say the war has also killed 193 children, including an eight-month-old baby, while dozens of medical facilities and ambulances have been damaged or destroyed.
Nine hospitals are no longer functioning, according to members of Iran’s parliamentary health committee.
Iran also confirmed the repatriation of 84 of 104 sailors killed after a US submarine sank the Iranian frigate Dena last week.
Lebanon front intensifies
Meanwhile the war’s regional spillover has intensified violence in Lebanon.
Israeli air strikes across southern Lebanese towns and villages have killed nearly 500 people, according to Lebanese health authorities.
The conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands.
The UNHCR says more than 667,000 people are now displaced, including 100,000 in a single day as attacks intensified.
Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continues along the border.
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares warned that an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon would be a “tremendous mistake”, as Spain pledged humanitarian aid worth €9 million to Beirut.
Lebanon’s government has also sought diplomatic intervention from the Vatican, asking it to help prevent further escalation after Israeli strikes killed a Maronite priest in southern Lebanon.
Israel signals long war
Israeli officials have presented yet another timeline for the conflict.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has framed the war as a historic opportunity to dismantle Iran’s government entirely.
According to Israeli messaging, the conflict will continue “as long as it takes” to eliminate Iran’s military capabilities and end what Israel sees as an existential threat.
Israeli officials argue the moment must not be wasted while US military support remains available.
Civilian life under bombardment
Despite the strikes, many Iranians are attempting to maintain daily life.
In Tehran’s historic Grand Bazaar, shopkeeper Mr Ghasemi says businesses have slowly reopened after several days of closures.
“Life has to go on,” he told Reuters.
“We experienced the eight-year war with Iraq. We are familiar with these conditions.”
But he acknowledged that customers and sales remain far below normal levels.
Environmental and health risks
Beyond the immediate destruction, the war is also triggering environmental dangers.
The World Health Organization has warned of health risks from “black rain” caused by attacks on Iranian oil facilities.
Air strikes have triggered fires and released toxic compounds including hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides and nitrogen compounds into the atmosphere.
WHO officials say oil-laden rain has been reported in several areas and advised residents to remain indoors to avoid respiratory problems.
Economic shockwaves
The conflict is also rattling global energy markets.
For the first time since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel.
Much of the concern centres on the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s oil supply travels.
Shipping traffic through the waterway has slowed dramatically as tankers avoid the region.
Supply-chain analysts say even if shipping resumes quickly, the disruption could continue affecting energy markets for months.
Higher oil prices are already pushing up fuel costs and threatening agricultural supply chains due to rising fertiliser prices.
Pressure on Trump at home
The war is also creating political pressure inside the US.
Trump had campaigned on ending US involvement in foreign conflicts, and many supporters now question the new military campaign.
The administration has struggled to articulate a clear reason for the war to the public.
Some officials have cited Iran’s role in supplying improvised explosive devices that wounded US troops during the Iraq war, but analysts say that argument has not gained traction domestically.
Rising gasoline prices and economic concerns are increasing public scrutiny of the conflict.
No clear political endgame
Security analysts say the US may have achieved tactical successes but still lacks a clear strategy for ending the war.
Andreas Krieg, a security studies expert at King’s College London, says Washington has yet to define what victory actually looks like.
Operational gains against Iranian missile infrastructure have not translated into a clear political objective.
“For the Iranians it’s simple,” he said.
“As long as they don’t lose, they win.”
Iran’s defiant message
Iranian leaders have responded with defiant rhetoric.
President Masoud Pezeshkian dismissed the idea that the country could be destroyed by foreign powers.
“Anyone who entertains the illusion of destroying Iran knows nothing of history,” he wrote on social media.
“Empires have come and gone. Iran has endured.”
Iranian officials also insist that any mediation must include guarantees that future attacks will stop.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says negotiations with the US are no longer on the agenda following the attacks.
Growing regional tensions
Elsewhere in the region, Iran has launched drone and missile attacks targeting energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
Sites in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have reportedly been targeted.
At least one person was killed in Bahrain’s capital Manama, while an Iranian missile strike killed one person in central Israel.
Meanwhile the Qatar government says it still believes the war could be contained before it spreads into a wider regional conflict.
Russia has also offered mediation, with the Kremlin confirming that proposals from Vladimir Putin remain on the table.
War’s ripple effects beyond Iran
Even beyond Iran and Lebanon, the conflict continues to destabilise the region.
Israeli attacks and cross-border fighting have forced more than 80,000 Syrians to flee from Lebanon back into Syria.
Meanwhile the humanitarian situation in Gaza Strip continues to deteriorate, with Israeli bombardment ongoing despite the separate conflict with Iran.
An uncertain end
With no clear military or diplomatic resolution in sight, analysts say the war could continue far longer than any side publicly admits.
Trump’s shifting statements have raised questions about whether Washington itself has settled on a strategy.
Meanwhile, Tehran insists the conflict will continue until Iran decides it is over.
