After nearly 17 years of political inertia, the election campaign has gathered momentum in the river-crisscrossed district of Barishal, where all six parliamentary constituencies are witnessing intense campaigning ahead of the national polls.
Barishal district, comprising one city corporation and ten upazilas, has historically been a stronghold of BNP. Since independence, the party’s main rival in the region had been Awami League, with the Jatiya Party also maintaining a notable presence in several constituencies. However, with Awami League absent from the contest this time, expectations of a BNP sweep have been complicated by the growing strength of Islamist parties and the emergence of independent candidates.
Discussions with local voters suggest that BNP is clearly ahead in three of the six seats. In two constituencies, the party is facing strong challenges from Islami Andolan Bangladesh, led by the Char Monai Pir. In another seat, a closely fought contest is expected between the BNP candidate and a rebel independent from within the party.
Barishal has long been considered a strong base for Islami Andolan Bangladesh due to the influence of the Char Monai Pir, giving the party a stronger vote share here than in many other parts of the country. This election, the party has fielded candidates in all six constituencies of the district. Although the current Char Monai Pir and party chief, Syed Rezaul Karim, is not contesting, his brother and the party’s nayeb-e-ameer, Syed Faizul Karim, is running in two seats.
In Barishal-1 (Gournadi–Agailjhara), four candidates are in the race. The main contest is between BNP chairperson’s adviser Zahir Uddin Swapon and BNP rebel independent engineer Abdus Sobahan. Local voters anticipate a neck-and-neck fight, with rival factions of BNP campaigning separately for the two candidates. Jamaat-e-Islami candidate Kamrul Islam Khan and Islami Andolan’s Russell Sardar Mehdi are also contesting, though they are not seen as key contenders.
In Barishal-2 (Uzirpur–Banaripara), eight candidates are competing. BNP nominee and central committee member Sardar Sarfuddin Ahmed Santu is considered comfortably ahead, benefiting from party unity and personal popularity. Islami Andolan’s Mohammad Nesar Uddin and Jamaat-e-Islami’s Abdul Mannan are his closest rivals, but they are yet to make a significant impact on the ground.
The Barishal-3 (Babuganj–Muladi) constituency, a traditional BNP stronghold, has six candidates in the race. BNP vice-chairman and senior lawyer Zainul Abedin is contesting with the party’s backing. His notable rivals include Islami Andolan’s Sirajul Islam and AB Party secretary general Asaduzzaman Fuad, who is aligned with the Jamaat alliance. Former Jatiya Party MP Golam Kibria Tipu is also contesting from jail. Despite these challenges, BNP’s organisational cohesion has kept Zainul Abedin in a strong position.
In Barishal-4 (Hizla–Mehendiganj), a river-surrounded constituency, five candidates are contesting. BNP’s young candidate Razib Ahsan, central general secretary of the Jatiyatabadi Swechchhasebak Dal, is facing competition from Islami Andolan’s Syed Eshaq Mohammad Abul Khair, the brother of the Char Monai Pir, and Jamaat-e-Islami’s Mohammad Abdul Jabbar. The seat, however, remains a BNP bastion, with the party having won here even in the 2008 election, widely considered disastrous for BNP nationally.
The most closely watched race is unfolding in Barishal-5 (Sadar and City Corporation), where six candidates are in the contest. BNP heavyweight and former mayor Mujibur Rahman Sarwar is facing a strong challenge from Islami Andolan Bangladesh’s nayeb-e- ameer Syed Mohammad Faizul Karim. Jamaat-e-Islami has not fielded a candidate here as part of an alliance strategy, raising the possibility that its voters may back Faizul Karim. Meanwhile, Workers Party candidate Manisha Chakraborty enjoys popularity among working-class voters and could split some of the BNP vote, while also attracting support from Awami League sympathisers if they turn out.
Sarwar has a long electoral history in this seat, winning by-elections in 1991 and 1998, followed by victories in the 2001 and 2008 general elections. This time, however, local observers believe he faces one of the toughest challenges of his career.
In Barishal-6 (Bakerganj), six candidates are competing. BNP district convener Abul Hossain Khan is locked in a tight race with Islami Andolan candidate Syed Mohammad Faizul Karim, while Jamaat-e-Islami’s Mahmudunnabi is also in the fray. Jatiya Party traditionally commands a significant vote share here, but its absence from the race has reshaped the contest. Local voters believe a portion of Jatiya Party supporters may back Islami Andolan, while some Islami Andolan votes could drift towards Jamaat, setting the stage for a closely fought BNP–Islami Andolan contest.
