The monsoon was not supposed to arrive this early. But as May unfolds with the same drenched intensity as April, Bangladesh’s rice fields are paying the price.
What began as meteorological anomalies has crystallised into an agricultural emergency, with heavy rainfall battering the country during the most critical window of its main rice production season.
In the haor wetlands, fields that once promised abundance now lie submerged. In the plains, ripe Boro paddy stands vulnerable to skies that refuse to clear.
And for millions of farmers who invested everything in this season’s crop, the question is no longer about profit margins; it is about survival.
The Bangladesh Meteorological Department’s data tells a stark story: April 2026 delivered 75.7 per cent more rainfall than normal, the highest deviation in five years.
Now, forecasters warn that May is following suit, with “heavy to very heavy rainfall” alerts issued for northern districts.
Senior Meteorologist Abul Kalam Mallick warned that short-term weather shifts could trigger “heavy to very heavy rainfall” in northern districts over the coming days, with official alerts already issued.
Ekushey Padak-winning agricultural economist Jahangir Alam said the timing could not be worse. “Most of the country’s Boro rice has ripened, and mechanical harvesting is underway,” he explained. “The next one to two weeks are critical. Heavy rain now does not just delay harvesting; it can flatten standing crops, spoil harvested grain, and wipe out months of labour.”
Haor region bears the brunt
Nowhere is this more evident than in the haor basin, the vast, low-lying wetlands of Sunamganj, Kishoreganj, Habiganj, Netrakona, and Brahmanbaria. Here, pre-monsoon rains have arrived with devastating force.
Government assessments confirm crop losses worth Tk1,110 crore across 50,000 hectares in Sunamganj alone.
Additional losses have been reported in Kishoreganj (Tk2.60 crore), Habiganj (Tk3.40 crore), and Netrakona and Nasirnagar (Tk386 crore). In total, approximately 11 per cent of the haor’s Boro crop has been damaged, accounting for roughly one per cent of the national Boro output.
Farmers in Distress
Behind the statistics lie stories of struggle. Mahadeb Das, a sharecropper from Sunaru village in Baniachang upazila, invested Tk2.5 lakh to cultivate 19 bighas. He has managed to harvest just two.
“Whatever I have cut is rotting in the open because there is no sun to dry it,” Das said, his voice heavy with worry. “How will I repay my debts now?”
His sentiment is echoed across affected villages. Sentu Mia of Shibpasha, Akbar Mia of Sultanshi, and Jasim Uddin of Atukura all share the same anxious question: “How will I run my family?”
The Department of Agricultural Extension confirms that even northern districts like Nilphamari, typically less vulnerable to haor-style flooding, are now reporting rain-related damage to standing crops.
National implications
This year, Boro rice was cultivated on a record 50.50 lakh hectares, a 3.29 per cent increase from last year. Yet, if unseasonal rains persist, Jahangir Alam estimates that up to five per cent of national Boro production could be lost, translating to a shortfall of 10 to 12 lakh tonnes.
“This is not just a farmer’s problem,” Alam cautioned. “Reduced supply, coupled with higher per-unit production costs, could trigger food inflation. The government may need to consider strategic rice imports to stabilise the market.”
He also criticised the current price policy: “With production costs rising and yields falling, fixing the procurement price at last year’s level is unreasonable. Farmers need a safety net, not further financial strain.”
Meteorologists advise close monitoring of short-term forecasts, while agricultural officials urge farmers to expedite harvesting where possible and utilise available drying facilities. However, with climate variability intensifying, experts argue that short-term fixes are insufficient.
