Awami League, whose activities are currently suspended, cannot be kept out of the country’s politics indefinitely, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has said, warning that how the party is eventually reintegrated into electoral politics will be one of the most sensitive challenges facing the country’s next elected government.
In an assessment released ahead of what is expected to be Bangladesh’s first credible national election in 17 years, the influential think-tank said AL’s deep electoral roots and the country’s political history make permanent exclusion unrealistic.
The polls, expected to draw around 127 million registered voters, are widely seen as a major step in Bangladesh’s long and difficult return to democratic governance.
Thomas Kean, senior consultant at ICG for Myanmar and Bangladesh, echoed these concerns in an article titled “Curtain Falls on Bangladesh’s Interim Government as Critical Elections Approach,” published on Monday, 2 February.
He wrote that any future role for AL would require its leadership to demonstrate genuine remorse for the violence unleashed on protesters during the July-August 2024 crackdown – 0something former prime minister Sheikh Hasina has so far declined to do.
The ICG notes that AL’s potential return to electoral politics remains highly contentious because of the actions of its government under Hasina, particularly the deadly response to protests in 2024.
Allowing the party to re-enter politics, even under new leadership, would be politically fraught unless managed carefully, the group says.
To reduce the risk of renewed instability, ICG argues that a broad consensus among major political parties and key state institutions on the terms and conditions of AL’s participation would be essential.
Without such agreement, it warns, the issue could become a major political flashpoint for the next government.
Kean also suggested that India and other influential foreign governments could play a constructive role by facilitating dialogue between AL and the incoming administration to help reach a workable political understanding.
Beyond domestic reconciliation, the next government will face a difficult foreign policy environment.
Relations with India, the growing strategic rivalry between the United States and China, and the lack of meaningful progress in resolving the situation of around 1.3 million Rohingya refugees living in camps near the Myanmar border remain pressing challenges.
Analysts have also expressed concern about the rising visibility of radical Islamist groups, including Hizb ut-Tahrir, since Hasina’s removal from power, raising questions about whether state security agencies have sufficient capacity to monitor and prevent violent extremist activity.
While an elected government with a full five-year mandate is expected to be better positioned than an interim administration to address political polarisation, as well as economic and social pressures, observers caution that the scale of the task ahead is immense.
ICG has urged foreign governments – many of which welcomed the role played by Muhammad Yunus and his colleagues during the transition – to provide sustained support to the incoming administration as it seeks to stabilise the country after a prolonged period of political upheaval.
One of the most serious long-term risks, the think-tank warns, lies in unmet expectations among Bangladesh’s youth. Nearly half of the population is under the age of 30, and many young people struggle to secure jobs that match their education, fuelling frustration and disillusionment.
Security concerns surrounding the election itself also loom large. Political violence has historically intensified during competitive polls, and recent months have already seen clashes between BNP and Jamaat activists.
Tensions could escalate further in closely contested constituencies. As Bangladesh heads to the polls, hopes for democratic renewal are high – but so are the stakes.
