The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, is facing growing uncertainty as the United States under President Donald Trump shifts its strategic focus away from the Indo-Pacific and seeks closer engagement with China, analysts say.
Foreign ministers of the Quad countries — India, Japan, Australia and the United States — met in New Delhi on Tuesday in an apparent effort to revive momentum within the grouping, which was originally formed to counter China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific region, according to an Al Jazeera report.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, alongside counterparts from Japan and Australia, for the meeting. However, analysts suggested the gathering reflected rising concerns within the alliance rather than renewed unity.
“It is essentially damage control,” Umi Ariga, an analyst at the Japan Institute for International Affairs, told Al Jazeera.
The Quad was first formed in 2007 and later revived in 2017 with a focus on regional security cooperation and balancing China’s rise. But analysts say the alliance has lost coherence since Trump returned to office in January 2025.
Washington’s recent military and diplomatic moves have unsettled key US allies in Asia. The US redeployed military assets from the Asia-Pacific to the Middle East during its conflict with Iran earlier this year, raising concerns among regional partners over America’s long-term commitment to Asian security.
During the US military operation against Iran in February, American forces reportedly used more than half of their pre-war stockpile of several critical munitions. The development alarmed allies in the region who fear Washington may struggle to sustain commitments on multiple fronts.
At the same time, Trump has pursued warmer ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping through trade deals and high-level diplomacy, including the first visit by a US president to China in nearly a decade.
Analysts say the apparent thaw in US-China relations has created unease among Quad members.
Beijing-based political analyst Einar Tangen said Rubio’s visit to India ahead of the Quad meeting highlighted Washington’s concerns over maintaining confidence among allies.
“After Trump appeared eager to stabilise relations with Beijing, Washington suddenly needed to convince its partners that America had not abandoned the Indo-Pacific,” Tangen told Al Jazeera.
He added that China views the Trump-Xi engagement as diplomatically favourable to Beijing, arguing that the US appeared more eager for rapprochement than China.
The Quad also faces structural weaknesses, analysts say. Unlike NATO, the grouping has no formal treaty, permanent secretariat or mutual defence commitments.
Ariga noted that no leaders’ summit was held in 2025 and Trump has yet to attend a Quad summit since returning to office. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has also not participated in a leaders’ summit.
“The grouping has been essentially leaderless at the top level for over a year,” she said.
While the Quad has continued cooperation on vaccines, supply chains, maritime surveillance and critical technologies, analysts argue these initiatives fall short of its original strategic ambitions.
“These are worthwhile, but they are second-order achievements for a grouping conceived as a strategic bulwark,” Ariga said.
Japan, in particular, has become increasingly concerned over the US military shift away from Asia, especially as China intensifies military exercises around Taiwan.
Tokyo has responded by increasing defence spending and expanding security partnerships with countries such as Australia, the Philippines and the United Kingdom through the Global Combat Air Programme, a joint fighter jet development initiative.
Ariga said Japanese policymakers remain worried that Trump could prioritise broader US-China deals over regional alliance commitments.
“There is still a lot of anxiety in Japan about abandonment,” she said.
Analysts believe similar concerns are emerging in India and Australia. According to Tangen, New Delhi fears Washington could eventually negotiate directly with Beijing while expecting India to continue bearing regional balancing costs.
In Australia, trade disputes and US pressure over defence spending have also fuelled doubts about Washington’s reliability.
“Washington simultaneously pressures allies economically while asking them to shoulder greater strategic risk against China,” Tangen said.
Despite China continuing to view the Quad as a containment mechanism, analysts say Beijing increasingly sees the alliance as fragmented and uncertain about its long-term direction.
“Each member is quietly calculating whether they are participating in a durable strategic coalition or merely serving as bargaining chips in Washington’s larger negotiations with Beijing,” Tangen said.
