In West Bengal’s Assembly election, more than a decade of political equations is set to change. After 15 years in power, Trinamool Congress faces a major defeat, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on course to form government for the first time.
According to local media reports, the BJP won 206 seats, far exceeding the 148 required to form government. The incumbent Trinamool Congress is securing 81 seats, while other parties together account for six.
Mamata Banerjee is scheduled to hold a press conference at Kalighat in Kolkata on Tuesday afternoon, where she will explain in detail how the Trinamool Congress was defeated, reports The Indian Express.
Clearly, the party is not prepared to accept that the people’s verdict brought their loss. Rather, they argue that an election excluding millions from the voter list cannot be considered free and fair.
That stance, however, does not change the reality that the BJP is set to form government in the state for the first time with more than a two‑thirds majority.
For over a decade in power at the Centre, the BJP had hoped to capture West Bengal in the 2021 election. Although the “lotus” did not bloom then, the party’s tally in the Assembly jumped from 3 to 77 seats.
This time their expectation was more than 185 seats, a target they now surpassed. According to the party strategists, five major factors are behind this sweeping victory.
Women’s vote
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government’s initiative on the Women’s Reservation Bill had a positive impact among female voters. BJP’s campaign branding opponents as “anti‑women” resonated widely.
Internal BJP estimates suggest women’s votes for the party rose by at least 5 percent. In West Bengal, male and female voter numbers are nearly equal.
Winning over government employees
BJP tapped into resentment over alleged denial of rights to government staff. Promises to implement the Seventh Pay Commission within 45 days of taking office and to fill vacancies attracted employees and job seekers. This influenced an estimated 20 to 50 lakh voters.
West Bengal has a higher proportion of government employees compared to other states and also recorded the highest number of service voters — about 1.08 lakh — compared to Tamil Nadu (67,000), Assam (63,000) and Kerala (54,000).
Central development push
The “Modi versus Mamata” narrative dominated the campaign. BJP highlighted lack of central project implementation and infrastructure gaps.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s more than a dozen rallies and promises appealed strongly to middle‑class and young voters, particularly the 1.31 crore aged 20–29.
Indian Election Commission data shows 5.23 lakh new voters joined the rolls this year, many of them targeted by BJP through social media and ground campaigns.
Security, forces deployment and anti‑incumbency
Campaigns by Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah spotlighting law‑and‑order failures, including rape and murder cases, hurt the ruling party. The RSS’s persistent outreach also encouraged voters to cast ballots without fear.
Voter list revision and ‘outsider’ issue
BJP successfully pushed for removal of “outsiders” or fake voters. More than 27 lakh names were struck off the rolls on grounds of “logical inconsistencies.” The campaign to make the voter list “transparent” influenced perceptions and voting behaviour.
