In a political shift of seismic proportions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has claimed victory in West Bengal for the first time in history, dismantling the long-standing dominance of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her All India Trinamool Congress (TMC).
The election results, declared on Monday following a multi-phase poll in April, indicate that the BJP’s formidable political apparatus has secured a commanding majority in the 294-seat legislature.
By late Monday afternoon, the BJP was either leading in or had officially won 200 seats – a massive leap from the 77 seats it held after the 2021 elections. Conversely, the TMC, which has governed the state of 90 million people since 2011, saw its tally plummet to just 87 seats, reports Al Jazeera.
A changing tide
The shift in sentiment was exemplified by voters like Seema Das, a domestic worker who travelled two days from New Delhi to her village to cast her ballot. Once a loyal TMC supporter, Das chose the BJP this time, influenced by narratives that Banerjee’s administration prioritised minority interests over the Hindu majority. Das remarked, “Didi has lost the track and only appeases Muslims to stay in power.”
Analysts suggest this victory is the most significant of the five state results announced on Monday. While the BJP also retained power in Assam and secured a win in Puducherry, other regions saw varied results: actor C Joseph Vijay’s new TVK party caused an upset in Tamil Nadu, and the Congress party defeated left-wing incumbents in Kerala.
Experts point to a combination of religious polarisation and a strong undercurrent of anti-incumbency as the primary drivers of the BJP’s success. Rahul Verma, a political scientist at Shiv Nadar University, noted that while Banerjee herself remained a popular figure, her party’s local machinery had alienated the public.
“There is visible support for Mamta and she remains popular, but there is anti-incumbency against the TMC machinery, and people were not happy with their interference in everyday life,” Verma stated, adding that “there was a corridor available to them [in West Bengal], and one can now say everything aligned in a way to produce this outcome for them.”
He emphasised that “without serious anti-incumbency, West Bengal would not have gotten this kind of result.”
The election saw a record turnout of approximately 92.93 percent, with 68.2 million citizens participating. Praveen Rai of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies observed that the TMC failed to evolve.
“The party system had turned hostile towards the people who did not subscribe to their ideology,” Rai argued, noting that “the TMC failed to read the growing resentment against economic deprivation and aspirational needs of the common people.”
National implications
BJP’s conquest of West Bengal, the home of its ideological forefather Shyama Prasad Mukherjee, is a major symbolic and strategic boost for PM Modi. Rai suggested this victory compensates for the BJP’s lack of an outright majority in the 2024 national elections.
“It substantially increases the national standing of Modi’s leadership and extends the hegemonic power of the party [BJP] to govern India,” Rai told Al Jazeera.
Neelanjan Sircar, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, highlighted a stark divide in voter behaviour.
“We found urban men are very polarised,” Sircar said. He added that while analysts once believed the state’s 25 percent Muslim population made a BJP victory impossible, the data suggested otherwise “That has, of course, not turned out to be true, something we did pick during our research.”
Controversies and resistance
The election was marred by allegations of voter disenfranchisement and intimidation. A “Special Intensive Revision” of electoral rolls by the Election Commission of India (ECI) resulted in the removal of over nine million names – roughly 12 percent of the electorate – many of whom were from the Muslim community.
Sircar noted, “Once the question of whether ‘I should be on the voter list’ became the dominant question for vulnerable populations, it’s not politics as usual.”
Moreover, the deployment of 2,400 companies of federal paramilitary forces – a record for a state election – drew criticism from the TMC. Verma remarked, “The heavy presence of security forces could have also created a favourable situation for the BJP.”
Despite the defeat, Mamata Banerjee remained defiant, urging her supporters to remain vigilant at counting centres. In a video message, she condemned the use of federal forces, “It’s a total forceful use of central forces to oppress the Trinamool Congress everywhere, breaking offices, and forcibly occupying them.” She concluded with a rallying cry, “We are with you. Don’t be afraid. We will fight like the cubs of a tiger.”
