Once known as a stronghold of the “plough symbol” and the undisputed bastion of Jatiya Party, the political map of Rangpur division is now witnessing the steady erosion of that dominance.
As Jatiya Party struggles to retain political relevance, Jamaat-e-Islami is moving swiftly to fill the vacuum, signalling its intent to emerge as the principal political force in the north.
Backed by disciplined grassroots organisation and expectations of an expanded vote bank, Jamaat has stepped up its presence across Rangpur.
The shift has fractured the familiar political order, turning the forthcoming election into a fresh contest primarily between BNP and Jamaat, rather than the traditional triangular fight that once defined the region.
An analysis of constituency-level trends across Rangpur division’s 33 seats suggests BNP is leading in 18, putting the party in a strong position for significant gains. Jamaat appears ahead in 10 seats, underlining its growing influence and competitive reach.
Jatiya Party, by contrast, is currently holding the lead in just three constituencies, a sharp decline from its past dominance.
Internal rifts within BNP have also altered the race in two seats, where rebel candidates are in the lead. In one constituency, the contest is shaping up between a BNP rebel and the party’s official nominee, while in the other, the main challenger is a candidate from Jatiya Party.
Seat-by-seat dynamics
In Panchagarh-1 (Panchagarh Sadar–Tetulia–Atwari), the main contest is between BNP and National Citizen Party (NCP), backed by Jamaat. Field assessments suggest BNP candidate Barrister Muhammad Nawshad Jamir is in the lead, with NCP central leader Sarjis Alam emerging as his principal challenger.
The Panchagarh-2 (Boda–Debiganj) seat has become a straight fight between BNP and Jamaat. BNP candidate Farhad Hossain Azad is currently ahead, while Jamaat’s Safiul Alam remains the main rival.
In Thakurgaon-1 (Sadar), BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir appears comfortably placed, with Jamaat candidate Delawar Hossain as his chief opponent.
In Thakurgaon-2 (Baliadangi–part of Ranisankail), Jamaat candidate Abdul Hakim is marginally ahead at this stage. BNP’s Abdus Salam is close behind, pointing to a tight contest between the two parties.
The race in Thakurgaon-3 (Pirganj–part of Ranisankail) is triangular. Current trends give a slight edge to Jatiya Party candidate Hafiz Uddin Ahmed. Jamaat’s Mizanur Rahman is the main challenger, while BNP nominee Zahidur Rahman is also running competitively.
In Dinajpur-1 (Birganj–Kaharol), Jamaat candidate Matiur Rahman is leading, with BNP’s Manzurul Islam his closest rival.
In Dinajpur-2 (Bochaganj–Birol), Jamaat’s AKM Afzalul Anam is ahead. BNP candidate Md Sadiq Riaz faces a tougher challenge, partly due to the presence of rebel candidates from within his own party.
In Dinajpur-3 (Sadar), BNP candidate Syed Jahangir Alam, the party’s Rangpur divisional joint organising secretary, is leading, with Jamaat’s Mainul Alam as his main opponent.
In Dinajpur-4 (Khansama–Chirirbandar), BNP’s Akhtaruzzaman Mia is currently ahead, locked in a direct contest with Jamaat candidate Aftab Uddin Molla.
In Dinajpur-5 (Parbatipur–Phulbari), an unusual contest is unfolding, with a BNP rebel running as an independent taking the lead. A Z M Rezwanul Haque, a former BNP figure contesting outside the party line, is ahead in the race, with the BNP’s official nominee A K M Kamruzzaman emerging as his main challenger.
In Dinajpur-6 (Nawabganj, Hakimpur, Birampur and Ghoraghat), BNP standing committee member A Z M Zahid Hossain is marginally ahead so far. He faces a strong challenge from Jamaat candidate Anwarul Islam, while a Jatiya Party contender remains in the race, adding a third dimension to the contest between the two major parties.
In Nilphamari-1 (Domar–Dimla), Jamaat candidate Abdus Sattar is leading. His main rival is Jatiya Party’s Taslim Uddin. The BNP alliance candidate Manzurul Islam, from ally Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, appears to be trailing in the race.
In Nilphamari-2 (Sadar), BNP candidate Shaharin Islam Tuhin is ahead. He is a nephew of the late BNP leader Khaleda Zia. His main contest is expected to be against Jamaat candidate Advocate Al Faruq Abdul Latif.
In Nilphamari-3 (Jaldhaka), Jamaat candidate Obaidullah Salafi is leading. The principal challenge is coming from BNP candidate Alhaj Syed Ali.
In Nilphamari-4 (Saidpur–Kishoreganj), Jatiya Party candidate Siddiqul Alam is ahead in what has become a three-way contest. Jamaat’s Abdul Muntakim and BNP rebel Riyad Arfan Sarker Rana are both in contention, while the BNP’s official nominee is Abdul Gafur Sarker.
In Gaibandha-1 (Sundarganj), the main contest is between Jamaat and Jatiya Party. Jamaat candidate Majedur Rahman is currently leading, with Jatiya Party Secretary General Shamim Haider Patwary as his principal challenger. Patwary’s position has been weakened by the presence of a rebel independent candidate, Md Mostafa Mohsin, who was previously aligned with Jatiya Party.
In Gaibandha-2 (Sadar), Jamaat candidate Abdul Karim is ahead. His main rival is BNP nominee Anisuzzaman Khan Babu.
In Gaibandha-3 (Sadullapur–Palashbari), BNP candidate Syed Moinul Hasan Sadiq is leading. Jamaat’s Maulana Abul Kawser Nazrul Islam is his main challenger, while Jatiya Party candidate Moinur Rabbi Chowdhury remains in the race.
In Gaibandha-4 (Gobindaganj), BNP candidate Mohammad Shamim Kaisar appears well placed in the race. His main challenger is Jamaat nominee Abdur Rahim Sarker.
In Gaibandha-5 (Phulchhari–Saghata), divisions within BNP are clearly shaping the contest. BNP rebel candidate Nahiduzzaman Nishad is currently leading, ahead of the party’s official nominee Faruk Alam Sarker. Jatiya Party Secretary General Shamim Haider Patwary is also in the race, adding further complexity to the contest.
In Kurigram-1 (Nageshwari–Bhurungamari), Jatiya Party candidate A K M Mostafizar Rahman is ahead, with the seat shaping up for a three-way fight involving Jamaat’s Md Anwarul Islam and BNP’s Saifur Rahman Rana.
In Kurigram-2 (Sadar–Phulbari–Rajarhat), a three-cornered contest is also emerging between BNP, NCP and Jatiya Party. So far, BNP candidate Sohel Hosnain Kaikobad holds a narrow lead. He is being challenged by Jamaat-backed NCP candidate Atikur Rahman Mojahid and Jatiya Party nominee Panir Uddin Ahmed.
In Kurigram-3 (Ulipur), BNP candidate Tanvir Ul Islam is leading. His main contest is against Jamaat’s Md Mahbubul Alam Salehi.
In Kurigram-4 (Chilmari–Roumari–Rajibpur), BNP’s Azizur Rahman is ahead, but faces a three-way contest. His main challengers are Jamaat candidate Mostafizar Rahman and Jatiya Party rebel independent Ruknuzzaman. Jatiya Party’s official nominee in the seat is K M Fazlul Mondol.
In Lalmonirhat-1 (Patgram–Hatibandha), BNP candidate Hasan Rajib Pradhan is leading. His principal rival is Jamaat’s Anwarul Islam Raju. The seat also features a heavyweight Jatiya Party candidate, former party secretary general Moshiur Rahman Ranga.
In Lalmonirhat-2 (Aditmari–Kaliganj), BNP nominee Rokon Uddin Babul is ahead, with Jamaat candidate Firoz Haider as his main challenger. In Lalmonirhat-3 (Sadar), BNP heavyweight Asadul Habib Dulu is leading. His main contest is expected to be against Jamaat’s Abu Taher.
In Rangpur-1 (Gangachara), Jamaat candidate Raihan Siraji has moved ahead following the cancellation of Jatiya Party candidate Manjum Ali’s nomination over dual citizenship. Raihan Siraji’s main challenger is BNP nominee Mokarram Hossain Sujan.
In Rangpur-2 (Badarganj–Taraganj), Jamaat candidate ATM Azharul Islam is leading. He faces competition from BNP nominee Mohammad Ali Sarker and Jatiya Party candidate Anisul Islam Mondol, setting up a three-way contest.
In Rangpur-3 (Sadar), Jatiya Party chairman G M Quader is out in front. His main challenger is BNP candidate Shamsuzzaman Samu.
In Rangpur-4 (Pirgachha–Kaunia), BNP candidate Emdadul Haque Bhorsa is ahead. He is being challenged by NCP central leader Akhtar Hossain, backed by Jamaat. Jatiya Party has also fielded Mahbubar Rahman in the seat.
In Rangpur-5 (Mithapukur), Jamaat’s Md Golam Rabbani is leading, with Jatiya Party candidate S M Fakhr Uz Zaman Jahangir emerging as his main rival.
In Rangpur-6 (Pirganj), BNP candidate Saiful Islam is ahead. Jamaat’s Nurul Amin is his principal challenger, while Jatiya Party has nominated Nur Alam Mia.
According to Rangpur Divisional Commissioner’s Office, Rangpur division has a total of 14,035,849 voters across its 33 parliamentary constituencies. Officials say they expect voters across the division to choose their representatives through a peaceful and orderly election.
