The US military action in Iran has begun with several missile strikes in Tehran yesterday and many believe that it could last for several days to eliminate any nuclear threat from Iran. On the other hand, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that they are launching a counter-attack in retaliation. If the large-scale war between US an Iran begins, it may change the dynamic of US hegemony in Middle East.
Earlier the US had given Tehran a 10 to 15-day deadline for an agreement and at the same time announced plans for a limited military operation. However, it is not yet clear what strategy the US will take in attacks on Iran.
Analysis of various media reports has revealed information about several possible strategies. These include – target killing or targeting Iran’s top leadership, sudden operations like Venezuela and long-term military operations. It is quite clear that the US military plan against Iran is to wage a war. The Pentagon will be able to move forward with the goal of not only attacking military installations but also targeting the country’s top leaders and changing the government in Tehran. The issue of how to attempt regime change in Iran without large-scale ground forces is also being considered. Earlier, President Trump authorised attacks targeting specific individuals during his first term. In 2020, Iran’s top general Qasem Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike. He was the head of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In 2019, the Trump administration officially declared the IRGC a terrorist organisation. However, discussions are ongoing on a strategy to overthrow the government without a major ground operation.
The then US policy of overthrowing governments in countries such as Afghanistan or Iraq has ‘failed’. The current strategy of the US towards Iran portends that there they are shifted away from that policy. Washington is looking at the success of the 12-day war between Iran and Israel last year, which killed at least 20 top commanders, including Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces. But targeting a specific individual requires high-level intelligence capabilities. It is also necessary to know the exact location of commanders and take into account that else may be affected by the operation. It is not clear what kind of intelligence the US currently has on potential targets.
The US, citing the daring surprise operation like that which captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas last month, is likely to be a regime change in Iran. But experts warn that the “surprise operation” that special forces successfully carried out in Venezuela is likely to be much more complicated in Iran. So, the US is mobilising a large force in and around the Middle East as part of preparations for a military operation against Tehran. There are some strategic elements in this preparation that indicate a prolonged operation, not just a sudden attack.
The three-tier military preparation includes a large fleet, advanced air defense systems, fuel tankers and a combat command center. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is currently in the Arabian Sea. It will soon be joined by the USS Gerald R. Ford and its strike group. It is also accompanied by a total of 11 destroyers equipped with Tomahawk missiles. Ford is now passing through the Strait of Gibraltar.
In preparation for an Iranian attack, Washington has added advanced air defense systems to various US bases in the Middle East over the past 10 days. The US is also deploying at least 16 tankers to continue air refueling and six command centers to coordinate combat operations. Citing intelligence analysts and military flight tracking data, Al Jazeera reported that the US has deployed more than 120 warplanes to the region in the past few days. This is the largest number of US warplanes deployed to the Middle East since the Iraq war in 2003.
Iran and the US met on Tuesday, February 17, on the nuclear issue. The missile attacks were carried out by US-Israel while the talks on nuclear deal are going on. The two sides are still far apart on important issues. Iran has been claiming that its nuclear programme is peaceful. On the other hand, the US believes that they cannot have nuclear weapons, it is very simple. Peace in the Middle East is not possible if they have nuclear weapons. It indicates that if there is no agreement, something very bad is awaiting there and action has already begun.
The writer is a journalist and columnist
