Political analysts and leaders have raised doubts over whether the 13th parliamentary election can take place in February next year as planned, despite the interim government’s repeated assurances.
They say the government is struggling to secure broad political cooperation and warn that the polls could face uncertainty if key challenges – including implementation of the July Charter – are not addressed swiftly.
According to the government’s timeline, the Election Commission (EC) must announce the schedule by December.
Analysts note that delivering a credible election will require not only consensus among political parties but also a robust administrative framework and a more assertive role from the EC. However, they caution that the current political and institutional landscape remains far from that ideal.
Political scientist Professor Sabbir Ahmed of Dhaka University believes the interim government must take “practical and decisive measures” to implement the July Charter if it wants to ensure a free and timely national election.
“To hold an impartial election on schedule, the government must also improve the law and order and make clear decisions on whether the Awami League and Jatiya Party will be able to participate,” he told TIMES of Bangladesh.
“If Dr Yunus fails to act firmly and quickly, there is a real risk that the election will be deferred,” he added.
The interim government has so far formed 11 commissions, including the National Consensus Commission (NCC), to reform the state. However, analysts say visible progress remains limited despite the expiration of their initial mandates.
Following two extensions, the NCC’s tenure now runs until 31 October. The commission has been working to build consensus among political parties on key issues, including the implementation of the July Charter, but divisions remain apparent.
Although most parties agree in principle on holding a referendum to implement the July Charter, they remain split over timing. The BNP insists that the referendum and national elections be held on the same day, while Jamaat-e-Islami and other Islamist parties are pushing for the referendum to take place before the election.
Most political parties are urging the commission to issue a clear recommendation on implementing the July Charter within its current term.
Amid this situation, serious doubts remain over the upcoming polls, said senior lawyer and political analyst Abu Hena Razzaki.
“There is undoubtedly uncertainty surrounding the election because the electoral path is far from smooth,” he said. “Unless political consensus is achieved on key issues – including the July Charter – it is unclear whether the public will accept the election results.”
He added that constitutional ambiguity is another potential obstacle.
“The Constitution does not recognise an interim government. So under which authority is this election being held? There is still no clear answer,” Razzaki said. “This could eventually lead to complications.”
Another hurdle has recently emerged – the proposed amendment to the Representation of the People Order (RPO), which would require candidates in an electoral alliance to contest under their own party symbols. The BNP has strongly opposed the move. Although the government has agreed in principle to implement the change, the BNP’s objection has stalled progress.
Meanwhile, a broader challenge remains – the major political parties have yet to place full confidence in the EC. Each has raised questions over the Commission’s neutrality. Jamaat-e-Islami and the National Citizen Party (NCP) accuse the Commission of favouring the BNP, while since the RPO amendment proposal surfaced, the BNP has begun criticising the EC more openly.
Concerns also persist over the stability of the public administration, which is expected to play a crucial role in the election. The BNP, Jamaat, and NCP have all argued that a neutral election is not possible under the current administrative structure.
The interim government also faces criticism for failing to deliver on key promises since the July uprising – particularly reforms for a “New Bangladesh”, prosecuting those accused of killings, and achieving genuine political consensus.
Political parties remain divided on core issues such as the implementation of the July Charter and the proposed ban on the Awami League and Jatiya Party. BNP’s strategic positioning on these questions has drawn objections from Jamaat, the NCP, and others, keeping disagreements alive just months before the expected polls.
In addition, law and order have yet to reach the level of stability expected before a national election, raising further doubts about whether a “level playing field” can be ensured for all parties.
Professor Dilara Choudhury, former Chair of the Department of Government and Politics at Jahangirnagar University and a political analyst, told TIMES, “If the July Charter is not implemented, the public will not accept the election – no matter which party contests. Without implementation, the election may eventually be suspended.”
“The EC has shown very little visible activity and the government lacks capable people to manage a credible election,” she said. “There is instability throughout the administration and a lack of proper oversight by law enforcement. There are many signs that justify concerns about the election.”
Even political parties themselves are expressing doubts over the upcoming polls.
Jamaat-e-Islami Assistant Secretary General Ahsanul Mahboob Zubair said the demand for implementing the July Charter reflects the will of the people, adding, “If the popular demands are not met, we will launch tougher movements.”
Gazi Ataur Rahman, senior joint secretary general of Islami Andolan Bangladesh, said, “If the government fails to fulfil the people’s demands, including the July Charter, and parties take to the streets – uncertainty around the election will only deepen.”
Leaders of the NCP have issued similar warnings in recent days, signalling clear political divisions that analysts fear may cast a shadow over the polls.
Meanwhile, BNP Standing Committee member Begum Selima Rahman said those who are making various demands and taking to the streets are actually trying to push the election back.
“But we do not see any real reason for postponing the election – the vote should go ahead in February,” she said.
