A new chapter has finally opened for Bangladesh, but the ink is barely dry. After the seismic shifts of July 2024 and a long 18-month interim period, the BNP secured its mandate in February. With Tarique Rahman taking the oath as Prime Minister on February 17, the country officially returned to elected governance. Yet, any “honeymoon period” for the cabinet is being cut short by a brutal reality: they have inherited a fractured economy and a global geopolitical landscape that is anything but friendly.
The economic tightrope
Growth is the word on everyone’s lips, but the numbers tell a cautionary tale. Following a sluggish 3.97 per cent growth in the previous fiscal year, the government is dreaming of a $1 trillion economy by 2034. It is an ambitious target that feels miles away when you look at the current stagnation. The IMF is cautiously optimistic at 4.7 per cent for the coming year, but the World Bank’s 3.9 per cent forecast feels more in line with the mood on the street. Private investment has hit a five-year wall, hampered by a banking sector that is essentially gasping for air.
For the average citizen, the macro-talk does not matter as much as the price of onions. March inflation sat at 8.71 per cent. While food prices took a slight breather, the cost of just “existing”—transport, electricity, and rent—is still climbing at over 9 per cent. We have become a regional outlier; while India and Sri Lanka have managed to cool their markets down to 3 per cent, we are still stuck in the 9 per cent trap. When wages only rise by 8 per cent, the maths for the working class simply fails.
The policy tug-of-war
Tarique Rahman administration is currently trying to balance the reform-heavy legacy of the Yunus interim government with the populist demands of its own base. It is a messy transition. There is already a heated debate over the 133 ordinances left behind by the previous administration. By April, we saw 23 crucial laws—including those protecting human rights—either lapse or get quietly repealed. The government calls it “legal harmonisation,” but for activists, it feels like a step backward for democracy.
The energy wall and the LDC clock
The biggest “if” for 2026 is the Middle East. With the Iran–US conflict choking the Strait of Hormuz, the power grid is feeling the squeeze. We are looking at a 3,000 MW deficit, leaving factories in the dark for five hours a day. For a country built on garment exports, this is a nightmare scenario.
Furthermore, the clock is ticking toward November 24—our LDC graduation date. Once we lose those export preferences, 70 per cent of current trade advantages vanish. Negotiating GSP+ status with the EU is not just a diplomatic goal anymore; it is an existential one.
What to expect at the DSE on Sunday
After a soul-crushing four-year bear market, the DSE is looking for a pulse. We are opening tomorrow at 5,286.88, but do not expect a rally just yet.
Investors are jittery. Any small gain in April is likely to be met with immediate profit-taking tomorrow.
Why risk it on stocks when Treasury bonds are dangling a 10 per cent guaranteed return?
Expect manufacturing and textile stocks to take a hit as the reality of industrial load-shedding sinks in.
Banks like BRAC and Jamuna remain the “safe harbour” because of their dividends, but anything energy-intensive—like cement—is going to be underwater.
I am likely looking at a 20 to 30-point dip on Sunday. While the long-term charts point toward 7,200, the immediate reality is a desperate scramble for stability.
The author is a capital market investor and a Vice President at the Bangladesh-American Chamber of Commerce USA Inc. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.
