Russia is providing China with advanced equipment and technology that could strengthen Beijing’s airborne capabilities in a potential assault on Taiwan, according to a new analysis of leaked documents by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based defense and security forum.
The think tank reviewed around 800 pages of Russian contracts and equipment lists obtained by the hacktivist group Black Moon, which has previously leaked documents online.
While some parts may have been altered or omitted, RUSI shared portions of the material with the Associated Press, and the authors concluded the papers appeared authentic.
Documents detail training and delivery schedules
The documents reference multiple meetings between Chinese and Russian delegations, including visits to Moscow, with timelines for payment and deliveries. Among the items listed are high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. The papers indicate Russia has begun work on the orders, though there is no evidence China has paid or received the equipment.
According to the analysis, the deal would give Beijing access to parachuting and airborne technologies it currently lacks. China under President Xi Jinping has already embarked on a military modernization plan aimed at building a “world-class” force by 2050.
Capabilities that point to Taiwan
US officials have previously warned that Xi has instructed his armed forces to be prepared for a Taiwan invasion by 2027. Although the leaked Russian files do not explicitly mention Taiwan, RUSI concluded that parachuting technology and amphibious vehicles would directly support such an operation.
“The Chinese school of airborne landing is very young,” said analyst Oleksandr Danylyuk, arguing that Russia’s help could accelerate China’s airborne capabilities by a decade or more.
He noted that the greatest value for Beijing lies in adopting Russian command and control procedures for parachute operations, since Moscow has real combat experience, unlike China.
Moscow’s motives, Beijing’s requests
According to RUSI, Russia is eager to build up its role as a military supplier to China both to finance its war in Ukraine and potentially to draw Beijing into confrontation with Washington over Taiwan, distracting US attention.
One leaked document dated September 2024 outlines a deal first agreed in April 2021. Early phases, such as technical specifications and software modifications, have already been completed.
Russia agreed to provide training in China and deliver a full airborne battalion package, including infiltration capabilities for special forces.
The contract lists 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, 11 amphibious anti-tank guns, 11 airborne armored personnel carriers and associated command vehicles, at a cost exceeding $210 million. All systems were to be modified to use Chinese communications gear and ammunition.
Another set of papers shows Beijing sought high-altitude parachute systems able to drop up to 190 kilograms from as high as 8,000 meters.
Russia pledged to provide performance data for its Dalnolyot system in extreme cold, ranging from –40°C to –60°C. RUSI said such a system would allow Chinese forces to glide nearly 80 kilometers, potentially enabling secret “stage zero” landings on Taiwan from outside its airspace.
Lessons from Ukraine failures
Russia’s own airborne troops, despite decades of experience, failed in Ukraine. In February 2022, Russian paratroopers attempted to seize Hostomel airfield near Kyiv to fly in reinforcements, but were repelled after helicopters were struck by missiles. A second attempt south of the capital also collapsed, and Moscow’s hopes of a quick victory dissolved into a prolonged war.
Analysts noted that for China, the operational challenge would be to avoid Russia’s mistakes: neutralising Taiwan’s air defenses quickly and landing enough forces to outpace mobilization by Taipei’s military. The RUSI report even suggested that armored vehicles could be airdropped on open spaces such as golf courses near ports and airfields to carve a path for follow-on troops.
Strategic implications
While Beijing’s equipment is more advanced than Moscow’s, Russia offers combat knowledge China lacks. “Russia and China each have relative strengths in paratrooping,” said Song Zhongping, a Beijing-based military commentator. “Their joint air and sea patrols show they are learning from one another to overcome weaknesses.”
Neither the Kremlin nor defense ministries in Beijing and Taipei have commented on the leaked documents. But analysts warn that cooperation in parachute and amphibious operations, if carried through, could shift the balance of military readiness in East Asia and shorten the timeline for any move against Taiwan.
