US President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Nobel Peace Prize are considered minimal, but his presence is casting a significant shadow over Friday’s announcement in Oslo.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee is facing intense scrutiny following the Republican billionaire’s campaign for the honour and his open disappointment at not receiving it since returning to the White House in January 2025, reports AFP.
Experts say Trump’s prospects have been severely weakened by his war against Iran, territorial ambitions, including over Greenland, and repeated attacks on the media and institutions of international cooperation.
Although direct lobbying from Washington has eased in recent weeks, observers believe the committee’s final choice will inevitably be interpreted as either direct or indirect criticism of the US president.
Haakon Gjerlow, head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO), described Trump as “the spectre in the room”. He said the committee must consider whether awarding the prize could “create harm rather than good” depending on the reaction from the White House.
Despite the political pressure, the Nobel Institute insists its deliberations remain unaffected.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the committee, told AFP that while lobbying and attempts to exert pressure are routinely discussed, they do not influence the discussions or decisions inside the room.
Last year, the prestigious prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a choice generally considered acceptable to Trump. Machado later gave her Nobel gold medal to Trump following the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, though she did not receive his political backing in return.
The developments could encourage the committee to choose a broad consensus laureate this year, particularly an individual or organisation involved in child protection or humanitarian relief.
Potential contenders in this category include Save the Children and Ukrainian children’s rights activist Mykola Kuleba, who campaigns for the return of children illegally taken to Russia from occupied territories. The cause is also close to the heart of US First Lady Melania Trump.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), a vast network of volunteers risking their lives to help people facing war and hunger, is also considered a potential laureate.
Alternatively, the committee could select a winner likely to anger Trump. Possible choices include Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories; Pope Leo XIV; press freedom advocates such as the Committee to Protect Journalists; and international judicial bodies such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Highlighting the importance of international legal institutions, Nobel historian Asle Sveen said the world is living in an “age of predators”, alongside figures such as Trump, Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu, who favour spheres of influence over an international order.
Sveen said institutions such as the ICC stand directly in the way of such powers.
A total of 287 individuals and organisations have been nominated for this year’s prize, although the names remain confidential for 50 years.
The decision comes against a grim global backdrop. PRIO recorded 65 armed conflicts involving at least one state actor in 2025, the highest number since 1946.
Harpviken acknowledged that the world was not moving in the right direction but said the abundance of good initiatives and dedicated work meant a peace prize “may make more sense than ever”.
