A major intelligence breakdown contributed to the fall of the Awami League government in 2024, according to multiple sources familiar with the country’s security and intelligence apparatus.
Officials who served in various intelligence agencies disclosed that they had indications well before the collapse of the government that the student-led movement had evolved beyond demands for reform and was increasingly aimed at toppling the administration.
They said intelligence agencies had assessed that the anti-discrimination movement was transforming into a mass uprising, but these concerns were never conveyed to the then-prime minister Sheikh Hasina.
Instead, one officer revealed, their bosses misguided Hasina by saying that the situation was fully under control and she didn’t have anything to worry.
Some observers compared the situation with 1975, when Bangladesh founding president Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was assassinated along with most of his family members. They argue that intelligence agencies at the time also possessed advance information but failed to adequately warn the country’s leadership.
The student uprising began in July 2024 with demands to eliminate discrimination in public-sector recruitment. Tensions escalated during the second week of the month after police gunfire in Rangpur killed student leader Abu Sayeed. Similarly, protesters were also killed in Dhaka.
The situation worsened when activists affiliated with the Awami League’s student wing attacked dormitories at Dhaka University and assaulted protesters.
According to police sources, law enforcement officials gradually realised that the movement was expanding rapidly and could evolve into a broader challenge to the government.
Role of DMP Commissioner
Multiple senior police officials familiar with the matter said that on July 18, Dhaka Metropolitan Police Commissioner Habibur Rahman met then Inspector General of Police (IGP) Chowdhury Abdullah Al-Mamun and warned that the protests were growing rapidly and could develop into a mass uprising.
According to the officials, Habib argued that local and foreign actors were exploiting the unrest to destabilise the government. He requested that the matter be brought directly to the attention of Sheikh Hasina.
Sources said IGP advised him to discuss the issue with the home minister instead. Habib subsequently met the minister but allegedly failed to secure any meaningful response. “The home minister dismissed the concerns and mocked him, saying the commissioner had become overly alarmed,” claimed one source.
Upon returning to the Police Headquarters, Habib learned that the IGP had spoken with Sheikh Hasina and assured her that the situation was under control.
He claimed that when Habib questioned why his concerns had not been conveyed, Mamun replied that the prime minister had done much for the police force and that he was reluctant to deliver negative assessments.
Then head of Special Branch (SB) Monirul Islam and head of Detective Branch (DB) of Police Harun ur Rashid were also present when such discussions took place.
Some officials have since questioned Mamun’s role during the period and his alleged contact with anti-government forces, particularly after he became an approver of the cases filed against him, Sheikh Hasina, Kamal and many others for committing crimes against humanity. Both Hasina and Kamal were sentenced to the death in one such case while Mamun got minor punishment.
Former IGP Ashraful Huda told TIMES of Bangladesh: “It is a mystery why a high-ranking official like an IGP became an approver. It creates controversy and sets a bad precedent for the judicial system.”
Agencies kept mum
After curfew was imposed in July and the army was deployed in aid of the civil administration, concerns grew over the deteriorating security situation.
According to sources, the then director general of the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) was assigned responsibility for Hasina’s security and delegated operational duties to the Dhaka Detachment Commander, Brig Gen (retd) Mizanur Rahman.
However, differences later emerged between the army and police regarding security planning.
Sources also referred to a darbar held at Army Headquarters on August 3, 2024, chaired by Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman. During the meeting, several officers reportedly expressed reservations about taking action against the student movement.
According to some participants, the army chief responded that the armed forces were part of society and should not become a political instrument. He reportedly emphasised the military’s constitutional responsibilities and duty to protect civilians.
Multiple sources further alleged that the then heads of DGFI and National Security Intelligence (NSI) failed to adequately warn the ousted prime minister about the scale of anti-government sentiment.
Some argue that DGFI failed to alert Hasina that divisions were emerging within sections of the armed forces, while NSI did not accurately assess that the anti-discrimination movement could develop into a mass uprising.
Some officials also pointed to the return of former DGFI chief Lt Gen (retd) Saiful Abedin, who had been living in the United States with his family after retirement, but returned home in July 2024. They alleged that Abedin, who served under Hasina, met a number of officials during his stay in Dhaka, reportedly acting against the government and went back to USA immediate after Hasina’s ouster.
Other officials alleged that the then DGFI chief had links to an Islamist political party that played a role in the anti-government movement. These claims could not be independently verified.
Security analyst Maj Gen (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman: “Those who worked in the intelligence agencies were part of the fascist regime and helped Hasina stay in power. Many became corrupt and lost their professionalism.”
Political miscalculations
According to sources, the Awami League had planned to organise rallies across the country on August 4 but cancelled following recommendations from an intelligence agency.
Critics believe the decision contributed to direct confrontations between police and protesters. As casualties mounted, the political crisis deepened, culminating in the fall of the government and Sheikh Hasina’s abrupt departure from the country on August 5 to India.
At least three officials said the SB repeatedly warned in its regular reports during July about the possibility of a mass movement. However, they said there was no specific assessment indicating that the government itself could fall.
Former IGP Nurul Huda said intelligence failures in such situations require thorough examination.
“When a government is toppled anywhere in the world, an investigation is conducted to determine where intelligence agencies failed,” he told TIMES. “Perhaps the agencies did not fully comprehend the situation.”
He added: “The then DMP commissioner was politically well-connected and may have had advance information, but it ultimately did not produce any result.”
