Chattogram and Cox’s Bazar – what was once a region of predictable BNP victories is now marked by shifting loyalties, internal dissent and carefully calculated Jamaat advances.
It has triggered a silent but intense struggle between two rivals – BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami – over control of the voters, organisational networks and political dominance in the southeast.
Chattogram–1: Jamaat challenges BNP stronghold
Chattogram–1, comprising Mirsarai Upazila, has long been a BNP bastion, with late party chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia once contesting from the seat. In the 13th parliamentary election, BNP has nominated former Upazila Chairman Nurul Amin, while Jamaat-e-Islami’s Saifur Rahman has emerged as his main challenger. Despite BNP’s historical dominance, Jamaat’s intensified campaign has raised the prospect of a competitive contest.
Chattogram–2: Straight contest between BNP and Jamaat
Fatikchhari Upazila is witnessing a direct face-to-face contest between BNP and Jamaat. BNP candidate Sarwar Alamgir and Jamaat-e-Islami candidate Nurul Amin are both considered strong contenders. Although candidates from Islami Andolan and Gana Odhikar Parishad are also contesting, along with two independents, the contest is widely expected to boil down to a tight BNP–Jamaat duel.
Chattogram–3: Rising contest in a BNP base
Sandwip Upazila has traditionally been a BNP bastion. BNP has nominated three-time former MP Mostafa Kamal Pasha, contesting. Jamaat-e-Islami has fielded North District Ameer Muhammad Alauddin Sikder. Other contenders include Islami Andolan Bangladesh’s Mohammad Amjad Hossain and independent candidate Md Moahedul Mawla . While BNP retains organisational strength, Jamaat’s growing vote share has turned the race into a potentially close contest.
Chattogram–4: Sympathy versus organisational strength
This constituency, comprising Sitakunda Upazila and wards 9 and 10 of Chattogram City Corporation, features BNP candidate Aslam Chowdhury, who is drawing voter sympathy following long imprisonment. Jamaat’s candidate Md Anwar Siddique is relying on organisational mobilisation. Despite the presence of candidates from seven other parties, including Gana Odhikar Parishad and Islami Andolan, the main battle remains between BNP and Jamaat.
Chattogram–5: Jamaat absent, new equation emerges
Covering Hathazari Upazila and city corporation wards 1 and 2, this seat sees BNP candidate Mir Mohammad Helal Uddin contesting. The 10-party alliance nominee is Nasir Uddin of Khelafat Majlis. With Jamaat not fielding a candidate here, the contest is expected to centre on BNP versus Khelafat Majlis, while Islami Andolan and Islamic Front add to the multi-cornered nature.
Chattogram–6: BNP heavyweight holds edge
Former MP Gias Uddin Quader Chowdhury is contesting from Raozan as BNP’s candidate. Jamaat’s Shahjahan Manju is his principal rival. Given his political experience, name recognition and organisational strength, Gias Uddin Quader Chowdhury is widely viewed as being ahead in the race.
Chattogram–7: Neck-and-neck campaign
BNP candidate in Rangunia is Hummam Quader Chowdhury, son of late BNP Standing Committee member Salauddin Quader Chowdhury. Jamaat’s candidate is ATM Rezaul Karim. With six other candidates in the race, including those from CPB, AB Party and Jatiya Party, both BNP and Jamaat candidates are campaigning with comparable intensity.
Chattogram–8: Four-way battle
This constituency features BNP candidate Ershad Ullah, Jamaat candidate Abu Naser , and 10-party alliance nominee Md Jobairul Hasan Arif of NCP. With Islamic Front also enjoying notable support, the contest remains open-ended, making it difficult to predict who will emerge as BNP’s main challenger.
Chattogram–9: Urban vote arithmetic
In this city-based seat, BNP candidate Abu Sufian and Jamaat’s AKM Fazlul Haque are the principal contenders. Despite eight other candidates, the election is expected to hinge on the BNP–Jamaat contest amid complex urban voting patterns.
Chattogram–10: New faces, old rivalry
BNP candidate Sayed Al Noman, son of late leader Abdullah Al Noman, is contesting against Jamaat’s Shamsuzzaman Helali in the constituency comprising Pahartoli, Doublemooring, and Halishahar. With both candidates entering new political phases, the traditional BNP–Jamaat rivalry dominates the race despite eight other contenders.
Chattogram–11: Heavyweight advantage
BNP Standing Committee member and former minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is contesting from this constituency (Bandar–Patenga–Sadarghat). Jamaat’s candidate is former commissioner Mohammad Shafiul Alam. Although Jamaat is attempting strategic mobilisation, Amir Khosru’s stature places him in a commanding position.
Chattogram–12: Alliance shift boosts Jamaat
BNP’s Enamul Haque Enam faces Jamaat’s Mohammad Faridul Alam. LDP nominee M Yaqub Ali withdrew in favour of Jamaat, strengthening its position in a constituency (Patia) where BNP has historically won four times since independence.
Chattogram–13 (Anowara–Karnaphuli): BNP seat under pressure
BNP’s Sarwar Jamal Nizam is contesting against Jamaat newcomer Mahmudul Hasan. BNP has won this seat six times since independence, including twice by Sarwar Jamal Nizam. Despite this history, Jamaat is attempting to gain ground.
Chattogram–14 (Chandanaish–Satkania Part): Rebel candidates complicate BNP
BNP nominee Jasim Uddin Ahmed faces 10-party alliance candidate Omar Faruk of LDP, whose father, Colonel (retd) Oli Ahmed, has repeatedly won here. Two BNP rebel candidates are also in the race, putting the official BNP candidate under pressure.
Chattogram–15 (Lohagara–Satkania Part): Jamaat base faces BNP push
Jamaat’s Shahjahan Chowdhury contests against BNP’s newcomer Nazmul Mustafa Amin. The seat is traditionally Jamaat-leaning, and both candidates are campaigning vigorously.
Chattogram–16 (Banshkhali): Split BNP vote helps Jamaat
BNP’s Mishkatul Islam Chowdhury faces Jamaat’s Mohammad Zahirul Islam. BNP rebel Liaquat Ali’s independent candidacy is believed to be giving Jamaat a relative advantage.
Cox’s Bazar: BNP stronghold under Jamaat pressure
All four parliamentary constituencies in Cox’s Bazar district are witnessing intense contests between BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami, challenging the district’s long-standing reputation as a BNP stronghold.
In Cox’s Bazar–1 (Chakaria–Pekua), BNP Standing Committee member Salahuddin Ahmed is facing Jamaat-e-Islami candidate Abdullah Al Faruk. While Salahuddin Ahmed retains strong organisational support, Jamaat has intensified its campaign, signalling a closely watched contest.
The race in Cox’s Bazar–2 (Maheshkhali–Kutubdia) has emerged as one of the most competitive in the district, BNP candidate Alamgir Mahfuz Ullah Farid and Jamaat’s central leader and former MP AHM Hamidur Rahman Azad. Both candidates have previously held parliamentary positions here, adding to the high stakes of the race.
In Cox’s Bazar–3 (Sadar–Ramu–Eidgaon), BNP’s Lutfur Rahman Kajal and Jamaat’s Shahidul Alam Bahadur are locked in a direct contest. Local political observers say both camps are running aggressive campaigns, raising the possibility of a tight result.
Meanwhile, Cox’s Bazar–4 (Ukhiya–Teknaf) reflects a geographically divided contest, with BNP enjoying stronger support in Ukhiya, while Jamaat continues to hold influence in Teknaf. The outcome is expected to depend largely on turnout and vote consolidation in these two areas.
CHT seats: Most unpredictable battlegrounds
The three parliamentary constituencies of the Chattogram Hill Tracts—Khagrachari, Rangamati and Bandarban—are witnessing multi-cornered contests shaped primarily by ethnic voting patterns and regional political alignments.
In Khagrachari, BNP candidate and former MP Abdul Wadud Bhuiya is facing strong competition from indigenous-backed independent candidates, who are expected to draw significant support from ethnic minority voters.
Rangamati, the largest constituency in the Hill Tracts, is seeing BNP nominee Dipen Dewan challenged by JSS-aligned independent candidate Ushaton Talukdar, a figure with long-standing influence among indigenous voters. In previous election indicate, turnout among tribal communities will be a decisive factor here.
In Bandarban, BNP’s former MP Saching Pru Jerry is contesting against Abu Sayeed Shaha Shujauddin of the National Citizen Party (NCP). With a mixed ethnic electorate, the seat is expected to be decided by which candidate succeeds in consolidating both Bengali and indigenous votes.
Across the Hill Tracts, indigenous voters remain a decisive force, making these three constituencies among the most unpredictable in the country in the upcoming election.
