The August 5, 2024, ouster of authoritarian ruler Sheikh Hasina through a popular mass upsurge created a common perception among the people that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) would easily win the next general elections held under the interim administration headed by Chief Adviser Professor Muhammad Yunus.
Extending total support, the BNP leadership repeatedly called upon the government to hold free, fair, peaceful, and transparent general elections to ensure Bangladesh’s return to democratic rule. The party also called for carrying out necessary reforms to state institutions that were destroyed during the 15-year rule of the Awami League since 2009.
The BNP’s de facto chief, Tarique Rahman, who has been exiled in London since 2008 for political causes, demanded elections by December 2025, as Prof. Yunus apparently remained indifferent to holding the 13th parliamentary elections.
The interim government’s lukewarm response to holding the polls stems from the demands of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, the National Citizens’ Party (NCP), Islami Andolon Bangladesh, and other smaller right-wing parties. They threatened to block the next general elections unless the deposed premier and Awami League president Sheikh Hasina- who fled to India on August 5 for her life- and her party leaders were tried for “genocide and crimes against humanity.”
They also demanded that the elections not take place without a guarantee that the constitutional and election reforms proposed by independent commissions formed by Prof. Yunus would be implemented.
The NCP, formed on February 28, 2025, with the patronage of the Yunus government, has been aggressive regarding the scheduling of the 13th general elections. The party leaders were at the forefront of the movement that led to Hasina’s fall starting in July 2024. NCP leaders frequently announced: “No Reform, No Trial of Fascists, No Election.” Almost all smaller parties and conservative faith-based parties united against holding elections, while the BNP was the only major party demanding the immediate holding of elections for the sake of Bangladesh’s stability and national security.
The right-wing parties launched massive online campaigns against BNP misdeeds, such as extortion, violence, and other criminal activities. According to them, the BNP wanted elections only to regain power for extortion, plunder, and corruption.
Even at the meetings of the National Consensus Commission, the BNP had to contend with Jamaat, the NCP, and other right-wing parties. Prof. Yunus also spoke against the BNP. In a media interview in Japan, he stated that only one party wanted votes; singling out the BNP. In another interview with a former Al Jazeera journalist, he mentioned that some people wanted him to stay in power for 50 years without elections.
A central leader of the BNP remarked: “The situation has become such that we are committing an offense simply by demanding elections.”
However, the interim administration softened its position on elections after Prof. Yunus flew to London, met Tarique Rahman, and announced that the elections would take place in February 2026.
The BNP faced further criticism because Tarique Rahman stayed in London despite his mother, three-time Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, being admitted with a serious illness.
In a Facebook post, Rahman stated that his return home was not under his sole control- a statement that frustrated many BNP supporters and sympathisers while rivals launched tirades against him. Social media campaigns suggested the BNP would lose everything. Jamaat and NCP leaders campaigned aggressively, claiming that a person living in London was not fit for leading Bangladesh. The BNP faced a tough situation as the Chairperson was in critical condition and the de facto chief was unable to return home.
The situation further aggravated when outspoken student leader Sharif Osman Hadi, a prominent figure in the anti-Hasina movement, was shot on December 12, a day after the Election Commission declared the schedule for the polls on February 12. He died on December 18 in Singapore. Hadi’s death sparked massive violence by right-wing parties, who burned two leading newspapers and a prominent cultural organisation in Bangladesh.
Hundreds of thousands assembled in Dhaka, with many announcing they would not allow the elections to proceed unless Hadi’s killers were tried. They declared an indefinite sit-in in Dhaka’s Shahbagh until justice was served.
Five days later after Tarique’s return, his mother and Bangladesh’s revered leader, Khaleda Zia, passed away at a hospital in Dhaka. On December 31, an unprecedented number of mourners from all political affiliations along with foreign dignitaries and leaders of other South Asian countries gathered at the Parliament premises to bid her a final goodbye.
S. Jaishankar handed a letter of condolence to Tarique Rahman without meeting Prof. Yunus or his counterpart, Foreign Adviser Md. Tauhid Hossain, before returning the same day. This sent a message that regional leaders value Tarique Rahman as the next leader. Prof. Muhammad Yunus and his council of advisers appeared pale.
The funeral prayer and burial ceremony abruptly reversed Bangladesh’s political scene due to popular sympathy for Khaleda Zia, who had suffered under Hasina’s rule.
Tarique Rahman’s return and Khaleda Zia’s death enabled the BNP to turn the tables on its rivals- Jamaat, the NCP, and other right-wing groups. Within days, the party established political control, frustrating the groups opposing the February 12 elections.
Few expected that the BNP, under Tarique’s leadership, would stage such a strong comeback. However, the veteran politician Suranjit Sengupta foretold Tarique Rahman’s future in July 2011. During a private discussion at his parliament office, a frustrated Sengupta told me what would happen in the coming decade. The Awami League-led parliament had enacted the controversial 15th Constitutional Amendment on June 30, 2011.
“Listen, now you journalists are writing whatever we tell you about Tarique (Rahman). But remember, a time will come when the people of Bangladesh will bring him back from London (London thika dhoira aina) to become the Prime Minister,” he told me as I sought his opinion on the consequences of unilaterally dropping the caretaker government.
At that time, his prediction seemed impossible, as Sheikh Hasina had a firm grip on Bangladeshi politics. Tarique Rahman and his mother, Khaleda Zia, were facing corruption and other criminal cases, which the judiciary later scrapped, calling those politically motivated. Less than 15 years later, Suranjit Sengupta’s forecast is almost a reality.
The interim administration of Professor Muhammad Yunus has ruled in such a way that people are looking forward to the return of the man whom the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina vilified for years.
Tarique Rahman is now seen as a saviour of Bangladesh’s democratic political system and the restorer of a state battered by pervasive mob violence from right-wing and extremist groups. Now, we must wait until February 12 to see whether Suranjit Sengupta’s prediction finally comes true.
The writer is a journalist, researcher and columnist
