Unseasonal April rains have submerged vast swathes of golden Boro paddy across Bangladesh’s northeastern haor basin, with initial assessments indicating nearly 47,000 hectares of crops damaged.
While the figure represents approximately 0.93 per cent of the national Boro cultivation, agricultural economists warn that even marginal losses in this critical rice-producing region could ripple through markets, elevate prices, and test the country’s food security.
Boro accounts for 60 per cent of Bangladesh’s total paddy output. Last fiscal year, the nation imported 1.2 million tonnes to bridge a domestic shortfall. With the current season’s damage still being assessed, fears are mounting that this year’s deficit could deepen reliance on imports and unsettle an already volatile rice market.
Fields under water, farmers in distress
In Sunamganj and Kishoreganj, farmers watched helplessly as ripe paddy, days away from harvest, vanished beneath floodwaters. Prashanta Sagar Das, a farmer from Dirai in Sunamganj, described the scramble to salvage what remains.
“If there is sunshine for a few days, it is possible to partially save the crop,” he told TIMES of Bangladesh. “Many are trying to harvest paddy by going into the water. However, there is a risk that the damage will increase due to the breach of the dam and the flow of water.”
Obaidur Rahman Mandal, director of the field services wing at the Department of Agricultural Extension, confirmed that assessment teams are still in the field. “About 46,700 hectares of paddy have been damaged so far,” he said. “This estimate is not yet final, and the amount of loss may increase further.”
With Boro cultivated across roughly 5 million hectares nationwide, the haor losses currently sit just below one per cent. Yet, the regional concentration of production magnifies the impact. Seven northeastern districts contributed about one-fifth of national Boro output last season.
Market watch: Prices rise, concerns grow
Professor Md Akhtaruzzaman Khan of the Agricultural Economics Department at Bangladesh Agricultural University expressed unease over the unfolding situation.
“About 60 per cent of the country’s total paddy production comes from Boro,” he explained. “If there is a significant deficit in production, import dependence will increase. Rice prices have already increased in the market. This may cause ordinary consumers to start buying and hoarding rice, which will create more instability in the market.”
He urged authorities to begin advance planning for the upcoming Aman season. “If advance planning is not taken, the country’s food security may come under further pressure. If the upcoming Aman season is good, then it may be possible to manage the food crisis to some extent.”
Professor Khan also advocated for regional agricultural planning, crop diversification, and targeted incentives for alternative growing seasons, particularly Aman cultivation.
Rising rivers, grim forecasts
Compounding the crisis, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre has issued a sombre outlook. Heavy rainfall in central and border areas has pushed seven rivers beyond danger levels, with several more expected to rise in the coming days.
In Sunamganj, the Naljur River at Jagannathpur is flowing 40 centimetres above the danger mark. Further afield, the Sutang River at Sutang-Railway Bridge is 83 centimetres above danger level, while the Mogra River at Netrakona point stands 79 centimetres higher than safe thresholds.
The Surma-Kushiyara and Dhanu-Baulai river systems, vital to the haor basin, are also swelling. Forecasters predict water levels in Sylhet and Sunamganj districts will continue rising over the next three days, with 150 to 350 millimetres of additional rainfall possible within a week.
The Department of Agricultural Extension now fears that more than 77,000 hectares could eventually be submerged if conditions deteriorate.
The bigger picture: Production, demand, and dependence
In the last fiscal year, rice production reached 2.13 crore tonnes from 48.89 million hectares of cultivated land. A 0.93 per cent loss translates to over 195,000 tonnes of potential shortfall.
National rice demand for the 2025-26 fiscal year is projected at 38 to 38.5 million tonnes, with domestic production expected to supply 37.7 million tonnes. Demand for the following year is estimated at 39.1 million tonnes, widening the gap between supply and need.
Despite over a decade of government assertions regarding rice self-sufficiency, Bangladesh imported 1.2 million tonnes this fiscal year alone to meet domestic requirements.
What comes next?
As assessment teams continue their work, the focus is shifting toward mitigation and adaptation. With the Aman season on the horizon, experts stress the need for resilient agricultural strategies that account for increasingly erratic weather patterns.
For farmers like Prashanta Sagar Das, the immediate concern remains the race against time and water. Every day of sunshine offers a chance to salvage a portion of the harvest. Every breach in an embankment threatens to wash away months of labour.
