Despite significant declines in global food prices over the past year, Bangladesh is experiencing the opposite trend, with unusual surges exerting tremendous pressure on consumers.
According to data from the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the price of rice in the international market decreased by 30%-35% from August 2024 to August 2025. However, in Bangladesh, the price increased by nearly 12%.
A similar trend is observed with wheat and edible oil during the same period. While the price of wheat in the global market dropped by an average of 5.3%, the price of flour in Bangladesh rose by 13.03%.
On the other hand, although there has been a slight increase in global edible oil prices, data from the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB) shows that the price in the domestic market has risen by 13.86%.
Moreover, the prices of vegetables, fish, and meat have seen significant increases in local markets, driving the food inflation rate to around 8% – the highest in South Asia.
Experts say while traders often use international price changes as an excuse to raise prices, they avoid reducing prices when global rates fall. They create artificial shortages in the market by forming syndicates and negotiating with the government, ultimately leaving consumers to bear the burden.
On Tuesday, after the meeting of the Advisory Council Committee on Government Procurement at the Secretariat, Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed also acknowledged that it is due to the obstacles created by traders that the prices of daily essentials are not coming down to the desired level.
Mustafizur Rahman, a distinguished fellow of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), told TIMES of Bangladesh, “Due to weak market management, traders create artificial shortages at various levels, from import to retail, and control prices.” He explained that this occurs due to the weak oversight of the Directorate of National Consumers’ Right Protection and the Competition Commission.
He further stated there is a lack of clear data on food demand, supply, and stock in the country – different institutions provide varying figures, making it difficult to plan effectively. Due to this uncertainty, delays in imports often lead to product shortages in the market.
Little impact of dollar stabilisation, fuel oil price drop
The global market was jolted by soaring commodity prices in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Bangladesh, heavily reliant on imports for essential goods, was significantly impacted by these fluctuations. The sharp rise in the dollar against the taka further worsened the situation, destabilising the economy. While global commodity prices began stabilising in 2023, the local market struggled to adjust to the price reductions.
The dollar exchange rate surged from Tk85 in April 2022 to over Tk118 in August 2024. As of 2025, the dollar is relatively stable, ranging between Tk119 and Tk122. In August, the dollar was around 4% more expensive compared to the previous year. Despite this decline in the dollar’s value, the prices of essential commodities in Bangladesh have not reflected these global shifts.
Experts say that another key factor influencing commodity prices is the cost of fuel oil. They note that although global fuel oil prices have decreased recently, there has been no significant reduction in prices in the domestic market.
According to the World Bank’s monthly report, the average price of crude oil in the global market was $97.10 per barrel in 2022. During that period, fuel prices in Bangladesh were increased by nearly 52%. By August 2025, the global price of fuel had dropped to $66.70 per barrel. However, according to data from the Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation, domestic fuel prices did not see a significant reduction during the same period.
AHM Safiquzzaman, a former secretary who has recently become the president of the Consumers Association of Bangladesh, told TIMES that the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission always justifies price hikes by citing losses. He pointed out that the lack of coordination within the government is preventing the protection of consumer interests.
Rice prices unusually high
According to World Bank data, the export price of 5% white rice from Thailand (the global benchmark) dropped to $378.80 per tonne in August 2025, down from $535.30 per tonne in August 2024 – marking a decrease of nearly 29.23% over the year. Data from the FAO shows that international rice prices have fallen by up to 35.3% during the same period.
However, the situation in Bangladesh is different. According to the TCB, the price of coarse rice in August 2024 was between Tk52-55 per kilogram, medium rice was priced at Tk55-60, and fine rice at Tk64-80. By August 2025, the prices increased to Tk55-60 for coarse rice, Tk60-75 for medium rice, and Tk75-85 for fine rice. This represents an average price increase of nearly 12% over the year.
Although Bangladesh is the third-largest rice producer in the world, it still imports rice, primarily from India. Additionally, rice is imported from Myanmar, Pakistan, and Vietnam through government-to-government (G2G) agreements. This fiscal year, Bangladesh has imported 8 lakh tonnes of rice from India. The General Economics Division (GED) of the Ministry of Finance reported last Wednesday that the government has procured a total of 1.7 million tonnes of Boro rice and paddy this year.
After a meeting at the Secretariat on Tuesday, Finance Adviser Salehuddin Ahmed said, “To control the price of rice, the government has approved the import of Atap rice. To ensure that the market does not face supply shortages, rice will be imported from Thailand and Vietnam.”
Question raised over oil price increase demands
According to World Bank data, the price of soybean oil per tonne was $1,031 in August 2024. By August 2025, the price had risen to $1,245. Taking advantage of this increase, traders have initiated discussions with the government, demanding a Tk10 rise in edible oil prices.
However, experts note that it takes two to three months for international price changes to reflect in the domestic market. Imported oil first arrives in the country, is then refined, and finally enters the market. In June, the international price of oil was $1,178, and based on that rate, there is no need for a price increase in domestic oil prices.
Md Mahmudul Hassan, deputy chief of the Trade Policy Division of the Bangladesh Trade and Tariff Commission, said, “It is not possible to comment on the reasonableness of the price increase at this moment. The matter is under review. However, if a Tk10 increase were deemed reasonable, the government would have approved it.”
CPD’s Mustafizur Rahman said many countries, including India, have permanent agricultural price commissions that ensure market stability through continuous monitoring. Bangladesh also needs such a framework.
Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman has said rice prices are expected to decline further once the new crop reaches the market in the coming days. “The price has already dropped by Tk 1–2 per kilogram and will fall more as fresh supply enters the market,” he told Times. He also expressed optimism that prices of essential commodities would decline ahead of Ramadan, as the government is “monitoring the market round the clock.”
