The Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) has expressed grave concern over the escalating military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, warning that Bangladesh’s highly import-dependent economy is increasingly vulnerable to external shocks.
In a statement issued Wednesday, the DCCI said the ongoing geopolitical tensions have already begun destabilising the global energy market, trade routes, and financial systems. Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel following supply disruptions in the Middle East, which accounts for a significant share of the world’s oil and LNG exports.
The chamber cautioned that Bangladesh’s external sector could come under severe strain. “It is estimated that every $10 increase in global oil prices could elevate the monthly import bill of Bangladesh by about $70-80 million, leading to an expansion of the trade deficit,” the statement read.
Beyond rising energy costs, the conflict has disrupted major shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies transit. Prolonged disruptions could significantly increase freight rates, insurance premiums, and delivery times for Bangladesh’s imports and exports, the DCCI warned.
Export-oriented industries, particularly the readymade garment (RMG) sector, face heightened risks from rising logistics costs, supply chain delays, and shipping uncertainties. This comes as Bangladesh’s exports have already been declining over the past seven months due to domestic political and economic challenges.
The chamber acknowledged some short-term relief in energy supplies, noting that more than 10 vessels carrying LNG, LPG, diesel, and other fuels have recently arrived at Chattogram Port, helping stabilise the immediate energy situation.
However, the DCCI emphasised that the situation remains highly unpredictable. “In case this conflict escalates or expands, Bangladesh might start experiencing a series of macroeconomic problems, such as escalating fuel and electricity production prices, high inflation caused by increased transportation and production costs, strain on foreign exchange reserves, and possible interruptions in remittance flows from the Middle East,” it warned.
To mitigate these threats, the DCCI called on the government to develop proactive policy measures, including building strategic fuel reserves, diversifying energy import sources, ensuring smooth supply chain logistics, and strengthening coordination between government agencies, financial institutions, and the business community.
The chamber also stressed the importance of diplomatic efforts to promote global peace and stability, warning that prolonged geopolitical conflicts pose severe risks not only to global trade but also to the economic stability of developing nations like Bangladesh.
