The 13th parliamentary election, scheduled for Thursday, is unfolding in an unprecedented political landscape, with the absence of Awami League reshaping electoral competition across the country.
Once-dominant political forces are now facing starkly different fortunes. Jatiya Party, long influential in northern Bangladesh, is fighting for political survival, while BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami — allies in the 2001 election — are now competing as principal rivals after more than two decades.
Based on changes in the political environment, ground reports from correspondents, and an assessment of internal dissent within BNP, TIMES of Bangladesh has compiled a seat-by-seat electoral forecast. The analysis suggests that BNP and its allies could secure a landslide victory, potentially winning around two-thirds of parliamentary seats.
According to the projection, BNP-led forces could secure up to 205 seats, allowing the party to form the next government with a comfortable majority. Jamaat and its alliance partners are projected to win around 48 seats, while Jatiya Party may be reduced to single digits, possibly securing no more than four seats.
Islami Andolan Bangladesh, led by the Charmonai pir, is projected to win one seat, while BNP rebels contesting as independent candidates could secure around 20 seats. A further 20 constituencies are expected to see close contests between BNP and Jamaat-backed candidates, making outcomes there difficult to predict.
BNP and Jamaat last contested elections separately in 1996, when both fielded candidates in all 300 constituencies. BNP secured 33.60% of the vote and won 116 seats, while Jamaat received 8.61% of the vote but won only three seats. In the 1991 election, Jamaat had won 12.13% of the vote and secured 18 seats, highlighting a decline in its electoral performance during that period.
Since the fall of Awami League government following the July uprising about one and half years ago, Jamaat has increasingly presented itself as a key force behind the uprising. Observers say the party has expanded its visible influence across administrative and political spheres and has quietly strengthened its organisational structure over the past decade and a half. As a result, analysts note a clear upward trend in Jamaat’s vote share, particularly in the Rangpur and Khulna divisions.
Regional outlook
In the Rangpur division’s 33 constituencies, BNP is projected to win 18 seats, including Panchagarh-1 and 2, Thakurgaon-1 and 2, Dinajpur-3, 4 and 6, Nilphamari-2, Gaibandha-3 and 4, Kurigram-2, 3 and 4, Lalmonirhat-1, 2 and 3, and Rangpur-4 and 6.
Jamaat is projected to win seats in Dinajpur-1 and 2, Nilphamari-1, 3 and 4, Gaibandha-1 and 2, and Rangpur-1, 2 and 5. Jatiya Party may retain Thakurgaon-3, Kurigram-1 and Rangpur-3. BNP rebels could win Dinajpur-5 and Gaibandha-5.
In Khulna division’s 36 seats, Jamaat is projected to win 17, BNP 12, and BNP rebels one seat, with six constituencies expected to be tightly contested. Jamaat’s projected seats include Khulna-5 and 6, Bagerhat-2 and 4, Satkhira-2, 3 and 4, Jessore-1, 2, 5 and 6, Chuadanga-2, Narail-2, Kushtia-2 and 4, Jhenaidah-3 and Meherpur-2. BNP is forecast to win 12 other constituencies, while Jhenaidah-4 may go to a BNP rebel.
In Sylhet division’s 19 seats, BNP is forecast to win 11, Jamaat three, and BNP rebels one, with three constituencies expected to remain too close to call. Jamaat’s likely wins include Sylhet-5 and 6 and Moulvibazar-1.
In Mymensingh division, elections are being held in 23 of 24 seats, with Sherpur-3 postponed due to the death of a Jamaat candidate. BNP is projected to win 19 seats, while four could go to BNP rebels.
In Rajshahi division’s 39 seats, BNP could secure as many as 30, with Jamaat winning two and independents one. Six constituencies are forecast as highly competitive.
In Dhaka division’s 70 seats, BNP is projected to win 48, Jamaat-led candidates eight, and independents nine. Seven seats are expected to see close contests, mainly involving BNP rebels.
In Barishal division’s 21 seats, BNP-led candidates are forecast to win 16, Jamaat two, Jatiya Party one, Islami Andolan Bangladesh one, and independents one. Two constituencies remain too close to predict.
In Chattogram division’s 58 seats, BNP and its allies could secure as many as 50. Jamaat-led candidates are projected to win six seats, while independents could take two.
Across the country, around 20 constituencies are expected to witness either two-way or three-way contests, with roughly half involving direct competition between BNP candidates and party rebels, and the rest seeing intense battles between BNP and Jamaat-backed contenders.
