Bangladesh’s economy shows signs of stabilisation but growth remains fragile, according to a keynote paper presented by Ashikur Rahman, Principal Economist of the Policy Research Institute (PRI), at the institute’s Monthly Macroeconomic Insights event in Dhaka on Tuesday.
The paper said GDP growth slowed to 3.97% in FY25 amid political uncertainty, weak investor sentiment and structural bottlenecks. The World Bank–IMF projects a rebound to 5.4% in FY26, with medium-term growth converging to 6.5%, though risks remain from inflation, foreign exchange instability and climate shocks.
Inflation eased to 8.29% in August, down from 9.32% in July, but the 12-month average stayed high at 9.58%, keeping real wages negative.
The external sector provided relief. Bangladesh posted a USD 3.4 billion BoP surplus in FY25, while the July 2025 deficit narrowed to USD 545 million. Reserves rose to USD 26.2 billion in August, up 27% year-on-year. Exports in July–August reached USD 8.7 billion, up 10.6% year-on-year, while remittances hit USD 2.42 billion in August, a 9% rise.
But domestic weakness is evident. Capital machinery imports fell 11.9%, construction slowed, and private credit growth stood at just 6.52% in July, among the lowest in recent years. The PMI slipped to 58.3 in August, signalling slower expansion across sectors.
Energy output stalled with 14,696 MW generated in July–August, barely higher than last year, while power imports fell 4.6% after an 8.5% cut from Adani Power.
NBR revenue rose 18% in August to Tk 27,272 crore, but still missed its target by 12%.
Rahman warned that without reforms, Bangladesh risks being trapped in low growth despite external stability.
