With industry sliding to negative growth territory, GDP growth dropped to 2.2 per cent in the January-March quarter, from 4.53 per cent a year ago and 3.03 in the previous quarter, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).
The quarter of 2026 national election, saw agricultural GDP dropping to 1.74 per cent from 3.68 in the previous three months and from an even higher growth of 4.61 per cent in the third quarter of the previous fiscal year. This was the worst agricultural performance since the July-September quarter of 2024 when agricultural GDP shrunk.
Industry that has been showing volatile growth over the past two years saw a negative 0.28 per cent growth in the third quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, down from 3.33 per cent a year ago. Meanwhile, industrial GDP saw 6.82 per cent growth in the July-September quarter before sliding to 1.27 per cent in the December quarter.
Services also slowed but remained the fastest-growing segment of the economy as the sectoral GDP grew by 3.52 per cent, down from 4.45 per cent in the previous quarter and from 7.32 per cent a year ago.
Meanwhile, the GDP growth for the first nine months of the past fiscal year stood at 3.36 per cent.
Economists said the election-centric local uncertainties and export volatilities due to the impacts of Trump tariffs were later accompanied by the Hormuz crisis in the January-March quarter.
Apparel exporters reported the closure of dozens of factories, leaving many jobless.
Higher borrowing costs, constrained private-sector credit growth and elevated input prices also weighed on investment and industrial output, while businesses remained cautious over fresh capital expenditure amid an uncertain domestic and global outlook.
The latest figures reinforce concerns that Bangladesh’s recovery remains fragile despite easing inflationary pressures and improving foreign exchange reserves in recent months.
The government eyes a GDP growth of 6.5 per cent for FY2026-27, betting on stronger investment, exports and macroeconomic stability after several straight challenging years.
However, multilateral lenders have taken a much more cautious view.
The International Monetary Fund projected Bangladesh’s economic growth at around 3.5 per cent this fiscal year, citing persistent fiscal pressures, financial sector vulnerabilities, subdued private investment and external uncertainties.
