The Iranian administration is on high alert for potential missile strikes from the United States and Israel following the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the region.
Reports suggest that Washington and its Israeli allies now possess the necessary military strength to launch an operation aimed at overthrowing Iran’s clerical leadership.
US President Donald Trump has termed this naval force, which includes multiple guided-missile destroyers, an “armada”. The escalation has already had severe economic consequences, with the Iranian stock market recording its largest-ever one-day drop on Monday.
Shift in strategic focus
Unlike the 12-day conflict in June that focused on nuclear facilities, any impending assault is expected to target the political administration. This shift in strategy is reportedly intended to bolster domestic protests driven by a 60 per cent inflation rate and grievances over the suppression of demonstrators.
Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has accused the US of conducting “psychological warfare” to erode national unity before initiating a strike. He further characterised protesters attacking military installations as “rioters” with “terrorist-like characteristics” who are attempting to incite a civil war.
Diplomatic denials and humanitarian concerns
On the diplomatic front, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei denied that Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with US envoy Steve Witkoff regarding a potential deal.
Reports had indicated that Witkoff was demanding the removal of highly enriched uranium and the return of United Nations inspectors. Baghaei warned that Tehran’s armed forces are monitoring all movements and will deliver a “comprehensive and regret-inducing response” to any military aggression.
The humanitarian situation remains dire, with rights groups reporting 5,419 confirmed deaths and another 17,000 fatalities under investigation. Mai Sato, the UN special rapporteur on Iran, highlighted accounts of families being forced to pay ransoms of $5,000 to $7,000 to recover the bodies of relatives, a claim the government denies.
Additionally, the government has throttled internet access since 8 January to manage the unrest.
Regional dynamics and international pressure
In terms of regional logistics, the United Arab Emirates has stated it will not permit its territory or airspace to be used for an attack on Iran. However, the US could potentially bypass such restrictions by launching operations from carrier groups positioned in the Mediterranean.
Meanwhile, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has proposed that the European Union officially proscribe the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation.
Despite the military buildup, the US administration remains divided over the prospect of forced regime change in a nation of 90 million people. President Trump previously hesitated due to the lack of a clear plan to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or to protect Israel from Iranian counterattacks.
How much strong ‘Armada’ is?
The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), a Nimitz-class carrier powered by two Westinghouse A4W nuclear reactors, can reach speeds of 30 knots. Measuring 1,092 feet in length with a 4.5-acre flight deck, it carries up to 90 aircraft including Super Hornet fighter bombers and Seahawk attack helicopters and accommodates over 5,600 personnel.
The vessel is equipped with advanced defensive systems, including Phalanx Close-In Weapon Systems and RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile launchers. The carrier is currently operating under the US Central Command.
