The Himalayas are nearing a dangerous threshold as accelerating glacier loss, unstable glacial lakes and inadequate monitoring expose South Asia to mounting environmental and economic risks, according to new research.
The findings come after devastating floods in Nepal and Tibet killed more than 1,300 people and caused extensive destruction, underscoring the consequences of rapid changes in the Himalayan environment, reports BBC.
Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65 per cent faster than they were a decade ago, according to a report by global consultancy Systemiq, prepared with the Integrated Mountain Initiative and with technical support from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and the GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment.
The report also highlights a major monitoring gap. Only about 21 of the estimated 40,000 glaciers across the Himalaya-Karakoram region undergo detailed, long-term monitoring.
The lack of monitoring is particularly concerning as the mountain landscape continues to change rapidly.
As glaciers recede, they can form expanding lakes held back by unstable deposits of rock and ice.
Rising temperatures are also weakening permafrost — permanently frozen ground that can thaw as temperatures increase — and destabilising high-altitude slopes, raising the threat of cascading disasters, the report says.
India is already experiencing the consequences of these changes.
Around 18 per cent of India’s land lies in the Himalayan region, but the area accounts for about 35 per cent of disasters, according to the report.
The Indian government told Parliament in July that 56 glacial lakes had been categorised as “very high risk” following a 2025 scientific assessment of 189 high-risk lakes in the Indian Himalayan region.
The government also said the Central Water Commission is monitoring 2,485 glacial lakes spanning more than 10 hectares across India’s Himalayan river basins.
The region has already witnessed the destructive impact of glacial lake outburst floods.
In 2023, a glacial lake outburst flood in Sikkim killed at least 70 people and extensively damaged roads, bridges and hydropower projects. A similar disaster struck Uttarakhand in 2021, killing more than 200 people when a massive flood surged through the Rishiganga and Dhauliganga valleys.
However, the risks extend beyond sudden and devastating floods.
The Himalayas serve as a vast natural water source, feeding rivers that provide water to hundreds of millions of people across South Asia.
ICIMOD estimates that most Hindu Kush Himalayan river basins will reach “peak water” around the middle of this century — the point when glacier runoff reaches its highest level before declining as glaciers continue to lose mass.
The latest research has also quantified the Himalayan region’s economic importance to India.
According to the report, water from the Himalayas supports around 20 per cent of India’s GDP, underpinning sectors including wheat, rice, tea, hydropower and pilgrimage-related economies. However, Himalayan states retain only about 5 per cent of that economic value.
“The Himalayas are the Third Pole,” said economist Lord Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. “Unlike the Arctic or Antarctic, this pole has hundreds of millions of people living beneath it.”
“This is national and international infrastructure,” he said, warning that the ecological system underpinning it is “approaching a tipping point”.
The research also points to factors within the region’s control that are accelerating glacier loss.
Systemiq estimates that black carbon contributes to roughly one-third of Himalayan glacier melt, with brick kilns in the plains accounting for a significant share of the pollution. Soot settling on snow and ice absorbs sunlight, accelerating the melting process.
Unlike greenhouse-gas emissions, black-carbon pollution can be tackled more directly by India and neighbouring countries, the report says.
“The Himalayas are approaching a tipping point, with millions of lives and livelihoods hanging in the balance,” said Arushi Chopra, Systemiq’s senior director and lead author. “Glaciers are melting faster than they were a decade ago.”
The report outlines 10 priority transitions, including cutting black-carbon emissions, expanding glacier monitoring, strengthening disaster early-warning systems and adopting more sustainable approaches to mountain tourism.
It recommends improving disaster preparedness by having governments agree in advance on measures to take when hazards emerge, including evacuating communities and protecting vulnerable infrastructure.
The report also urges a rethink of tourism in the region, which attracts around 400 million tourist visits annually, according to the report.
Researchers argue that tourism policy should move away from maximising visitor numbers and instead focus on generating economic value that remains in local communities and is reinvested in the region.
Pema Gyamtsho, director general of ICIMOD, said the challenges facing the Himalayas were becoming increasingly complex.
“Glaciers are retreating, permafrost and high-mountain slopes are becoming increasingly unstable, and communities and infrastructure downstream face growing risks from complex and cascading hazards,” he said.
The risks also transcend national boundaries.
Such hazards, Gyamtsho said, “do not respect national borders, and no single country can address them alone”.
The report therefore stresses the need for stronger cross-border monitoring, shared risk information, coordinated early-warning systems and joint investment in resilience.
Such cooperation will be crucial not only for saving lives but also for protecting the livelihoods and economies of hundreds of millions of people who depend on the Himalayan mountain system.
