Despite signalling a cautious and conservative approach, the government is set to frame a large national budget for the 2026–27 fiscal year.
The budget size is likely to be around Tk9 lakh crore, roughly Tk1 lakh crore or about 12.5 per cent higher than the current fiscal year’s Tk7,97,000 crore.
Finance ministry officials said the budget is expected to be placed in Parliament on 11 June, followed by the finance bill.
Economists warned the expansionary plan could pose risks amid revenue shortfalls, global instability and structural weaknesses in the economy.
They urged restraint in spending and alignment with ground realities.
Terming the budget “ambitious,” former World Bank Dhaka office Lead Economist Zahid Hussain said the country faces risks to both energy and food security due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
“Fiscal austerity should have been the primary focus at this time,” he told TIMES of Bangladesh. “The government’s current approach could undermine confidence in policy credibility.”
He added the budget appears increasingly debt-dependent, cautioning that higher domestic borrowing could crowd out private sector credit and dampen investment.
Officials, however, said the government is prioritising poverty reduction, job creation, human resource development and inflation control amid the evolving political landscape.
Preliminary estimates show total expenditure for FY27 at Tk8,83,000 crore, with revenue projected at Tk6,36,000 crore, or 9.4 per cent of GDP.
The current tax-to-GDP ratio is 6.6 per cent, against a target of 9.2 per cent set for the next fiscal year by the International Monetary Fund, which will require a 44 per cent increase in revenue growth.
This is highly ambitious compared with the country’s typical revenue growth of around 14 per cent in recent years.
Of the revenue target, Tk5,71,000 crore is expected from taxes and Tk65,000 crore from non-tax sources.
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is likely to be assigned Tk5,50,000 crore, while non-NBR tax revenue may reach Tk21,000 crore.
The Annual Development Programme (ADP) allocation is projected at Tk2,53,000 crore, Tk23,000 crore higher than the current fiscal year’s proposed ADP.
The budget deficit is estimated at Tk2,47,000 crore, or 3.6 per cent of GDP.
To finance the gap, the government plans to raise Tk2,41,000 crore from domestic sources, including Tk1,20,000 crore from banks, while external financing may reach Tk1,06,000 crore.
GDP growth for FY27 is projected at 6 per cent, with the economy estimated at Tk68,07,000 crore, or about $544 billion.
A post-budget press conference is scheduled for June 12, while general discussions in Parliament are set to begin on June 14.
Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) Executive Director Fahmida Khatun said the budget is being prepared amid mounting domestic and global pressures.
The economy is grappling with high inflation, weak revenue collection, poor budget implementation, pressure on foreign exchange reserves, low investment and limited job creation, she said.
She added that financial sector volatility and slowing export growth are adding strain, while global uncertainties, including the Middle East war, could further affect the economy.
“So, ensuring macroeconomic stability should remain the top priority for policymakers,” she said.
